Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:14:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A4 0xa4ff…a4b4 other 248 markets active 1h ago coverage 133d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$89 (-0%) realized −$89 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate2%6W / 241L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$215per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$13
14 days−$25
30 days−$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% −$38
sports 28% −$26
politics 9% −$8
economics 7% −$6
crypto 7% −$12
culture 5% −$6
world 4% −$4
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 72 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 182 -0.3% -9.8% 1% 0% -9.7%
all 247 -0.3% -9.8% 2% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

133d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized−$89
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)2%
Wins / losses6 / 241
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)247 / 248
History coverage133d
Avg bet$215
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 247 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? No 99¢ 99¢ $49 $49 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $133 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $50 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $448 −$1 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $71 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $485 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $103 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $103 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $535 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $50 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $294 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $445 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $435 −$1 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 14 $239 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $221 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $302 $0 -0%
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $51 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $273 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $266 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $237 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $167 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $458 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $332 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $182 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $261 $0 -0%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $139 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $279 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $403 −$1 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $241 −$1 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $108 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $280 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $188 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $203 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 08 $175 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 08 $146 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $130 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $341 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 07 $555 −$1 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $178 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $342 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $698 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $237 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 06 $237 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $380 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $283 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $147 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $629 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 04 $56 $0 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 04 $192 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 04 $144 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $635 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $49 1h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $49 2h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $49 4h
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $49 5h
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $50 7h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $50 17h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $50 18h
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $50 27h
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $50 29h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $50 30h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $50 31h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $50 33h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $50 34h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $50 36h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $50 37h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $50 39h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $50 40h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $50 43h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $50 45h
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $50 2d
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $50 2d
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $50 2d
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $50 2d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $50 2d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $50 2d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $50 2d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $51 2d
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 SELL No 98¢ $51 3d
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 BUY No 98¢ $51 3d
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $51 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.23 · official $49.23 (match) · 1387 history records