Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:04:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A4 0xa4ff…5ded sports 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,424 (-35%) realized −$3,934 · open +$510
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%3W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,240per market
Trades / day14.6pace
Fees−$155est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,610now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$1,992
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-4.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +5.5% -4.5% 43% 43% -35.3%
≤30d 7 +5.5% -4.5% 43% 43% -35.3%
≤90d 7 +5.5% -4.5% 43% 43% -35.3%
all 7 +5.5% -4.5% 43% 43% -35.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.6 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.5% 43% -35.3%
10% ← realistic here -13.7% 43% -41.5%
15% -22.0% 43% -47.2%
20% -29.7% 43% -52.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 68% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
4.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,009 vs −$1,382 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$1,610
Realized−$3,934
Unrealized+$510
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses3 / 4
Est. fees paid−$155
Open positions1
Markets (closed)7 / 8
History coverage3d
Avg bet$1,240
Trades / day14.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Over 55¢ 80¢ $1,100 $1,610 +$510 (+46%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1,368 +$1,032 +75%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 AND Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $445 +$962 +216%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $1,051 −$609 -58%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1,948 −$1,948 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $999 −$984 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $2,015 −$1,988 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $983 +$1,034 +105%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $1,115 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $184 13h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $6 13h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $977 13h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $6 13h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $5 13h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $190 13h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 AND Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY 31¢ $445 20h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 21¢ $77 21h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 22¢ $12 21h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 24¢ $353 21h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $1,051 31h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $730 44h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $5 44h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $2 44h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $27 44h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $19 44h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $57 44h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $9 44h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $16 44h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $15 44h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $45 44h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $1 44h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $2 44h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $2 44h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $25 44h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $2 44h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $574 44h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $16 44h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $62 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,609.99 · official $1,609.99 (match) · 46 history records