Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T18:12:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
A4 0xa4ff…3404 other 19 markets active 2h ago coverage 197d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$94 (-18%) realized −$94 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +88% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +70% what you keep after slip
Net edge+70%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate56%10W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit26%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$17
7 days+$20
14 days−$30
30 days−$30
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 83% −$43
tech 11% −$47
world 2% $0
economics 2% +$1
culture 2% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)+70.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +25.6% +13.6% 100% 100% +12.5%
≤30d 5 +0.5% -9.1% 80% 80% -29.6%
≤90d 5 +0.5% -9.1% 80% 80% -29.6%
all 18 +88.0% +70.1% 56% 44% -27.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +70.1% 44% -27.5%
10% +53.8% 33% -34.5%
15% +39.0% 22% -40.8%
20% +25.4% 22% -46.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 66% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% too few recent
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +88% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +179% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$25 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

197d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized−$94
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses10 / 8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)18 / 19
History coverage197d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit26%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 70¢ 69¢ $34 $34 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 +$11 +55%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $31 +$4 +12%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $18 +$2 +12%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $15 +$4 +24%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? Jan 29 $10 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026 Jan 05 $42 +$12 +29%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from December 19 to December 26, 20 Dec 25 $113 −$71 -62%
Will Jensen Huang be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Dec 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Artificial Intelligence be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Dec 24 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Sam Altman be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Dec 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SEX? Dec 24 $20 −$7 -33%
Will Trump refrain from announcing a next Fed Chair in 2025? Dec 22 $10 +$1 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202 Dec 15 $10 +$2 +23%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202 Dec 15 $10 −$7 -67%
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Dec 14 $10 −$3 -31%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 202 Dec 12 $10 +$20 +198%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025 Dec 09 $70 +$50 +72%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $35 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $35 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $31 11h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 97¢ $31 13h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $20 34h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $18 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 89¢ $18 3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $15 7d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $50 8d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? SELL Yes 48¢ $10 143d
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026 SELL Yes 19¢ $55 167d
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026 BUY Yes 15¢ $42 169d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from December 19 to December 26, 20 SELL Yes 9¢ $42 178d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from December 19 to December 26, 20 BUY Yes 24¢ $83 179d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from December 19 to December 26, 20 BUY Yes 24¢ $30 179d
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SEX? SELL Yes 12¢ $13 179d
Will Trump refrain from announcing a next Fed Chair in 2025? SELL Yes 96¢ $11 181d
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SEX? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 186d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202 SELL Yes 42¢ $12 188d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202 SELL Yes 11¢ $3 188d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202 BUY Yes 34¢ $10 189d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202 BUY Yes 33¢ $10 189d
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? SELL Yes 45¢ $7 189d
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 202 SELL Yes 80¢ $30 191d
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 202 BUY Yes 27¢ $10 191d
Will Sam Altman be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 193d
Will Jensen Huang be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 193d
Will Artificial Intelligence be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? BUY Yes 48¢ $20 193d
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025 SELL Yes 97¢ $120 194d
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025 BUY Yes 56¢ $50 194d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.12 · official $34.12 (match) · 82 history records