Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:00:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A4 0xa4f9…9419 sports 257 markets active 3d ago coverage 20d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 19d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (163 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$3,173 (-1%) realized −$3,173 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate28%73W / 184L
Whale WR35%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$966per market
Trades / day162.9pace
Fees−$4,503est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 20d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% −$6,325
other 8% −$1,830
culture 0% +$1,441
crypto 0% −$41
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (163 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-19.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 61 -25.3% -32.5% 25% 23% -25.1%
≤30d 257 -10.8% -19.3% 28% 28% -12.0%
≤90d 257 -10.8% -19.3% 28% 28% -12.0%
all 257 -10.8% -19.3% 28% 28% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover162.9 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.3% 28% -12.0%
10% -27.0% 26% -20.4%
15% ← realistic here -34.1% 26% -28.1%
20% -40.5% 24% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 35% (≥$1,134) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +3% → late -25% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
11.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,862 vs −$776 · ×2.4 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3,173
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses73 / 184
Whale WR (big bets)35%
Est. fees paid−$4,503
Open positions0
Markets (closed)257 / 257
History coverage20d ⚠
Avg bet$966
Trades / day162.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 257 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 14 $41 −$41 -100%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Iva Jovic Jun 14 $898 −$898 -100%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Viktorija Golubic vs Veronika Erjavec Jun 14 $2,376 −$2,376 -100%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Oksana Selekhmeteva vs Taylah Preston Jun 14 $3,523 −$3,523 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $8,036 −$5,049 -63%
Will Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-3 be the exact series outcome? Jun 13 $846 −$70 -8%
Will Coco Gauff be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Jun 13 $153 −$22 -14%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 13 $497 −$5 -1%
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) Jun 13 $165 −$8 -5%
Spread: Spurs (-20.5) Jun 13 $17 $0 -3%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Mia Pohankova vs Tamara Korp Jun 13 $585 −$585 -100%
Ilkley: Ashlyn Krueger vs Darja Vidmanova Jun 13 $1,308 −$1,308 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 13 $1,545 −$1,545 -100%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Daniel Evans vs Marcos Giron Jun 13 $2,119 −$2,119 -100%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Panna Udvardy vs Katie Volynets Jun 13 $1,134 −$1,134 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2,626 +$2,874 +109%
FC Bayern Munchen vs. Alba Berlin Jun 12 $641 −$596 -93%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 12 $1,386 −$1,386 -100%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Katie Boulter Jun 12 $5,242 −$5,242 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $3,747 +$3,253 +87%
Set Handicap: Lehecka (-1.5) vs Tiafoe (+1.5) Jun 12 $1,352 +$1,032 +76%
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Amanda Anisimova Jun 12 $5,308 +$2,907 +55%
Set 1 Winner: Bellucci vs Fritz Jun 12 $23 +$46 +203%
Daniil Medvedev vs. Thijs Boogaard: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $17 −$17 -100%
Set Handicap: Auger-Aliassime (-1.5) vs Majchrzak (+1.5) Jun 12 $92 −$92 -100%
Libema Open: Zhizhen Zhang vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 12 $788 −$788 -100%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Jun 12 $9,690 −$741 -8%
HSBC Championships: Marie Bouzkova vs Donna Vekic Jun 12 $735 −$735 -100%
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 12 $2,200 −$2,200 -100%
Libema Open: Daria Snigur vs Robin Montgomery Jun 12 $1,681 −$1,681 -100%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria Jun 12 $1,720 +$1,280 +74%
Set 1 Winner: Rybakina vs Maria Jun 12 $270 +$730 +270%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $113 −$113 -100%
Set 1 Winner: Struff vs Bublik Jun 12 $429 −$429 -100%
Libema Open: Martin Damm vs Alex de Minaur Jun 12 $150 −$150 -100%
Libema Open: Nikola Bartunkova vs Hanne Vandewinkel Jun 12 $399 −$399 -100%
HSBC Championships: Victoria Mboko vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 12 $737 −$737 -100%
Libema Open: Panna Udvardy vs Daria Snigur Jun 12 $1,476 +$1,493 +101%
Stuttgart Open: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Alexander Bublik Jun 12 $1,192 −$1,192 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 12 $12,362 −$12,362 -100%
Libema Open: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Ajla Tomljanovic Jun 12 $6,965 −$6,965 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $188 +$312 +165%
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz Jun 11 $945 +$528 +56%
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 11 $6,507 +$15,270 +235%
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs James Duckworth Jun 11 $798 −$760 -95%
Will Jakub Menšík be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 11 $51 −$3 -6%
Will Amanda Anisimova be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Jun 11 $45 −$5 -11%
Will Daniil Medvedev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 11 $54 −$10 -18%
Will Félix Auger-Aliassime be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 11 $41 −$10 -24%
Will Coco Gauff win the 2026 Women’s US Open? Jun 11 $59 −$5 -8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up $41 2d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 19¢ $431 3d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 19¢ $288 3d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 19¢ $473 3d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 19¢ $193 3d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 19¢ $80 3d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 19¢ $19 3d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 19¢ $19 3d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 19¢ $4 3d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 19¢ $6 3d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 19¢ $4 3d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 19¢ $19 3d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 19¢ $14 3d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 19¢ $19 3d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 19¢ $6 3d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 19¢ $42 3d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 3d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 19¢ $19 3d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 19¢ $19 3d
Will Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-3 be the exact series outcome? SELL Yes 18¢ $241 3d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 19¢ $160 3d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 19¢ $876 3d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 19¢ $263 3d
Will Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-3 be the exact series outcome? SELL Yes 18¢ $263 3d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 19¢ $275 3d
Will Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-3 be the exact series outcome? SELL Yes 18¢ $271 3d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 19¢ $888 3d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 19¢ $34 3d
Will Coco Gauff be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? SELL Yes $0 3d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 19¢ $1,108 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records