Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:36:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A4 0xa4f6…6012 crypto 50 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (112 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$14 (-7%) realized −$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate32%16W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day112.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$34
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (112 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-32.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 -25.4% -32.5% 32% 26% -24.7%
≤30d 50 -25.4% -32.5% 32% 26% -24.7%
≤90d 50 -25.4% -32.5% 32% 26% -24.7%
all 50 -25.4% -32.5% 32% 26% -24.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover112.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -32.5% 26% -24.7%
10% ← realistic here -39.0% 26% -31.9%
15% -44.9% 20% -38.4%
20% -50.3% 20% -44.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -28% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses16 / 34
Open positions0
Markets (closed)50 / 50
History coverage1d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day112.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 50 Trades
no open positions (14 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 16 $16 −$8 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $15 −$7 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$9 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 16 $16 −$4 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$4 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$3 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$8 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$2 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$3 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$3 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$2 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$2 +208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$3 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$2 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$2 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$2 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$5 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET SELL Down 58¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET SELL Up 58¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Down 32¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET SELL Up 5¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET SELL Up 7¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET SELL Up 2¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET SELL Down 63¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET SELL Down 35¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET SELL Down 11¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET SELL Up 71¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET SELL Up 3¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Down 16¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Down 49¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 138 history records