Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T02:06:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
A4 0xa4f5…9427 sports 68 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$139 (+10%) realized +$157 · open −$18
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate66%43W / 22L
Drawdown31%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day29.7pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$70now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 66% +$8
other 24% +$65
crypto 10% +$43
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-4.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 65 +5.8% -4.2% 66% 57% +2.5%
≤30d 65 +5.8% -4.2% 66% 57% +2.5%
≤90d 65 +5.8% -4.2% 66% 57% +2.5%
all 65 +5.8% -4.2% 66% 57% +2.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.2% 57% +2.5%
10% ← realistic here -13.4% 45% -7.3%
15% -21.8% 28% -16.2%
20% -29.4% 26% -24.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$9 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.66 per $1 lost it wins $1.66
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$70
Realized+$157
Unrealized−$18
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses43 / 22
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions3
Markets (closed)65 / 68
History coverage6d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day29.7
Drawdown31%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 65 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Yes 55¢ 44¢ $36 $28 −$8 (-21%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Yes 59¢ 36¢ $34 $21 −$13 (-38%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 51¢ 58¢ $18 $21 +$2 (+13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $30 +$11 +38%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $16 +$20 +123%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $6 +$10 +152%
Valorant: NAVI Junior vs Mandatory (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group A Jun 24 $82 −$42 -51%
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group Jun 24 $16 +$30 +185%
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $15 −$1 -7%
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs Eternal Fire - Map 2 Winner Jun 24 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $12 +$6 +56%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $4 +$1 +16%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Esport Academy Copenhagen (BO3) - DraculaN Jun 23 $22 +$8 +35%
Valorant: REJECT vs QT DIG∞ (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage Jun 23 $21 +$5 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Jun 23 $12 +$3 +22%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10 +$13 +129%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $10 +$6 +57%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $4 −$4 -98%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Andrea Guerrieri vs David Goffin Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: KUUSAMO.gg vs Passion Academy (BO3) - United21 Group D Jun 22 $36 +$5 +14%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $10 +$6 +62%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 21 $40 −$35 -87%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs TDK (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs Jun 21 $66 +$3 +5%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs TDK - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $49 +$11 +22%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $154 +$15 +10%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Phantom (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Close Jun 21 $61 +$20 +32%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playof Jun 21 $102 +$11 +11%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $10 $0 +3%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Phantom - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $10 $0 +4%
Counter-Strike: ReThink vs roamsfiest (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A Jun 21 $16 +$3 +18%
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $25 +$1 +4%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 21 $16 +$3 +18%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $5 +$1 +23%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Jun 21 $20 +$1 +5%
Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - The Inter Jun 21 $20 +$3 +14%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $30 +$11 +35%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $17 +$5 +30%
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs OpTic Texas (BO5) - Call of Duty League S Jun 20 $10 +$1 +12%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 +$6 +28%
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs summer bear (BO3) - European Pro League Playo Jun 20 $8 +$2 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -94%
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers Jun 20 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 +$15 +75%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $5 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -95%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 59¢ $24 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $42 2h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 55¢ $36 2h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 54¢ $10 2h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $36 2h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 44¢ $16 3h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 39¢ $6 8h
Valorant: NAVI Junior vs Mandatory (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group A SELL Mandatory $2 8h
Valorant: NAVI Junior vs Mandatory (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group A BUY Mandatory 55¢ $16 9h
Valorant: NAVI Junior vs Mandatory (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group A BUY Mandatory 55¢ $6 9h
Valorant: NAVI Junior vs Mandatory (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group A BUY Mandatory 55¢ $11 9h
Valorant: NAVI Junior vs Mandatory (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group A BUY Mandatory 55¢ $11 9h
Valorant: NAVI Junior vs Mandatory (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group A SELL NAVI Junior 40¢ $40 9h
Valorant: NAVI Junior vs Mandatory (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group A BUY NAVI Junior 38¢ $8 10h
Valorant: NAVI Junior vs Mandatory (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group A BUY NAVI Junior 38¢ $12 10h
Valorant: NAVI Junior vs Mandatory (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group A BUY NAVI Junior 38¢ $6 10h
Valorant: NAVI Junior vs Mandatory (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group A BUY NAVI Junior 38¢ $6 10h
Valorant: NAVI Junior vs Mandatory (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group A BUY NAVI Junior 38¢ $7 10h
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group SELL AM Gaming 100¢ $46 10h
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group BUY AM Gaming 35¢ $0 11h
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group BUY AM Gaming 35¢ $1 11h
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group BUY AM Gaming 35¢ $3 11h
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group BUY AM Gaming 35¢ $2 11h
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group BUY AM Gaming 35¢ $10 12h
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 61¢ $14 12h
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs Eternal Fire - Map 2 Winner BUY AM Gaming 46¢ $20 12h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $4 35h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 72¢ $30 38h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Esport Academy Copenhagen (BO3) - DraculaN SELL Esport Academy Copenhagen 100¢ $30 38h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Esport Academy Copenhagen (BO3) - DraculaN BUY Esport Academy Copenhagen 74¢ $22 39h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $70.40 · official $70.40 (match) · 201 history records