Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:42:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A4 0xa4f5…38d7 weather 15 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$22 (+2%) realized −$16 · open +$38
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate12%1W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$78per market
Trades / day17.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,041now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$78
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-32.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -25.0% -32.1% 12% 12% +16.4%
≤30d 8 -25.0% -32.1% 12% 12% +16.4%
≤90d 8 -25.0% -32.1% 12% 12% +16.4%
all 8 -25.0% -32.1% 12% 12% +16.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.1% 12% +16.4%
10% -38.6% 12% +5.3%
15% -44.5% 12% -4.9%
20% -50.0% 12% -14.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +29% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt +29% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$126 vs −$12 · ×10.23 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.46 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$1,041
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$38
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses1 / 7
Open positions7
Markets (closed)8 / 15
History coverage2d
Avg bet$78
Trades / day17.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? No 63¢ 64¢ $654 $674 +$20 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18? Yes 28¢ 36¢ $206 $257 +$51 (+25%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 18? Yes 21¢ 18¢ $56 $48 −$8 (-15%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 19? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $40 $44 +$4 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 19? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $13 $12 −$1 (-8%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 18? Yes 10¢ 5¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 17? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $24 $1 −$23 (-94%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 18? Jun 17 $21 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $31 +$126 +401%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $26 −$25 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $29 −$28 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 16? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 16? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 16? Jun 15 $26 −$25 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? BUY No 65¢ $212 12m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 19? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 19? BUY Yes 7¢ $11 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 19? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 18? BUY Yes 14¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 18? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 19? BUY Yes 16¢ $31 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? BUY No 65¢ $205 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 18? BUY Yes 18¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? BUY No 64¢ $102 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18? BUY Yes 28¢ $208 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18? BUY Yes 29¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? BUY No 59¢ $31 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? BUY No 56¢ $39 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? BUY No 56¢ $81 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 18? SELL Yes 13¢ $21 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 4h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 18? BUY Yes 25¢ $42 6h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 18? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 6h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 6¢ $9 6h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 7¢ $14 9h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? SELL Yes 95¢ $52 9h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? SELL Yes 94¢ $17 9h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? SELL Yes 94¢ $23 9h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? SELL Yes 94¢ $30 9h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? SELL Yes 82¢ $35 9h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 18? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 13h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 13h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 17¢ $26 13h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 16? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,040.93 · official $1,040.93 (match) · 37 history records