Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T08:51:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
A4 0xa4f4…cd48 crypto 1412 markets active 2h ago coverage 150d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 149d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$298 (-4%) realized −$298 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate65%918W / 494L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day16.6pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13
7 days−$23
14 days−$43
30 days+$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$13
other 1% −$2
sports 0% +$1
politics 0% +$1
weather 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 142 -3.0% -12.3% 82% 33% -12.5%
≤30d 1283 -1.0% -10.4% 67% 58% -9.3%
≤90d 1283 -1.0% -10.4% 67% 58% -9.3%
all 1412 -3.0% -12.3% 65% 55% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 55% -9.8%
10% -20.7% 44% -18.4%
15% -28.3% 36% -26.3%
20% -35.4% 27% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

150d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$298
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses918 / 494
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1412 / 1412
History coverage150d ⚠
Avg bet$6
Trades / day16.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1412 Trades
no open positions (387 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +22%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +25%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +26%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $8 −$3 -39%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$2 +40%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +30%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $8 +$4 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $9 +$2 +23%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +38%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +26%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +29%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +25%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 13 $9 +$2 +19%
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +33%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$9 -98%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 13 $9 +$1 +17%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$2 +36%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +25%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +34%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +9%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$3 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$4 +83%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$4 +76%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$3 +73%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$3 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$4 +93%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $5 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $5 5h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $5 8h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $5 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 9h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $5 10h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $4 10h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $5 10h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $5 10h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $4 10h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $4 10h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $5 10h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $3 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $4 10h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $4 17h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $5 18h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $5 28h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $5 31h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $4 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $4 33h
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 35h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $5 39h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $5 39h
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $4 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $4 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $4 41h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $4 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records