Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T10:31:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A4 0xa4f3…1138 world 38 markets active 1h ago coverage 450d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate39%14W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$6
14 days+$6
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 56% +$6
politics 14% −$8
other 14% $0
tech 7% $0
sports 6% $0
crypto 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -1.4% -10.7% 43% 0% -7.6%
≤30d 11 -2.5% -11.8% 36% 0% -8.2%
≤90d 12 -10.6% -19.1% 33% 0% -8.2%
all 36 -5.7% -14.7% 39% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.7% 0% -9.8%
10% -22.9% 0% -18.4%
15% -30.3% 0% -26.3%
20% -37.1% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 75% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

450d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses14 / 22
Open positions2
Markets (closed)36 / 38
History coverage450d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 89¢ 89¢ $48 $48 +$0 (+0%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-58%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 19 $64 +$5 +8%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $2 $0 -12%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $11 $0 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $102 +$2 +2%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 16 $58 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $50 $0 -1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $3 $0 -3%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $3 −$1 -18%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 12 $43 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $47 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $12 $0 +0%
Will SOCDEM win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary electio Mar 31 $0 $0 -100%
Will Trump deport less than 250,000? Dec 24 $14 −$9 -60%
Will Trump issue a Gold Card before June? May 31 $14 $0 +1%
Will xAI have the top AI model on May 31? May 29 $14 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? May 27 $12 $0 -0%
Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility in May? May 27 $1 $0 +8%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2300 and $2400 on May 27? May 27 $1 $0 -35%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 60-65% of the vote in the South Korea election? May 26 $14 $0 +3%
Will Luís Montenegro be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the May 21 $13 +$1 +9%
Will Trump deport 1,250,000-1,500,000 people? May 13 $12 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2025? May 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 350 or more times May 9–16? May 11 $13 $0 +0%
Will Sam Altman buy TikTok? May 10 $13 $0 +0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 10 $13 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75k in May? May 09 $13 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? May 09 $11 −$1 -6%
Will Cavaliers vs. Timberwolves be the 2025 NBA Finals matchup? May 08 $13 $0 +0%
Will SER win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 May 08 $13 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in May? May 07 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? May 07 $13 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 06 $15 $0 +2%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Apr 07 $15 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on June 30? Apr 07 $14 $0 +2%
Will xAI have the top AI model on June 30? Apr 03 $8 $0 +0%
Will the LA Clippers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 01 $15 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $48 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 13h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 16h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $24 29h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 54¢ $16 30h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 54¢ $8 30h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 39h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 41h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 41h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $3 44h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $8 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $8 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $54 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $54 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 89¢ $19 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 89¢ $16 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 89¢ $0 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 89¢ $20 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 89¢ $54 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 50¢ $45 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 44¢ $9 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 44¢ $30 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $5 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $45 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $45 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.00 · official $48.00 (match) · 110 history records