Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T17:13:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
A4 0xa4f2…ed60 other 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$225 (+31%) realized +$231 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate29%6W / 15L
Drawdown53%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit35%portable
Net worth$124now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$124
7 days+$225
14 days+$215
30 days+$215
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% +$287
sports 22% +$79
crypto 19% −$130
world 4% −$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +10.7% +0.2% 33% 28% +27.4%
≤30d 21 +2.0% -7.7% 29% 24% +25.7%
≤90d 21 +2.0% -7.7% 29% 24% +25.7%
all 21 +2.0% -7.7% 29% 24% +25.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.7% 24% +25.7%
10% -16.5% 24% +13.6%
15% -24.6% 24% +2.7%
20% -32.0% 24% -7.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +38% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +38% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$87 vs −$20 · ×4.25 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.7 per $1 lost it wins $1.7
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$124
Realized+$231
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses6 / 15
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)21 / 23
History coverage10d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown53%
Kalshi-fit35%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Argentina 41¢ 38¢ $100 $94 −$6 (-6%)
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 1 Egypt? Jun 22 $9 −$9 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 21 $21 −$20 -98%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 21 $51 +$90 +176%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $21 −$5 -26%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Japan? Jun 21 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? Jun 21 $21 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 21 $31 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $31 +$219 +712%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $31 −$30 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Sweden? Jun 20 $52 −$50 -96%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $51 +$79 +156%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $51 +$75 +147%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $51 +$57 +112%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -91%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $4 $0 +7%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $7 −$7 -97%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 $0 -4%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3 −$1 -47%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $19 −$9 -47%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 11¢ $31 1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 41¢ $102 1h
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 2¢ $9 14h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 IR Iran? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 23h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) SELL Spain 93¢ $141 23h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia? SELL Yes 11¢ $15 24h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 25h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 33¢ $51 25h
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 35h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 37h
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 18¢ $31 41h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 12¢ $31 46h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 16¢ $51 47h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 9¢ $31 47h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Sweden? BUY Yes 10¢ $52 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 94¢ $130 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 36¢ $51 3d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 9¢ $51 4d
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? SELL Yes 77¢ $126 5d
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 30¢ $51 5d
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan? SELL Yes 25¢ $109 5d
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 11¢ $51 5d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 5d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $1 6d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 65¢ $3 6d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $1 6d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $2 6d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 31¢ $7 6d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 91¢ $1 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $123.90 · official $123.90 (match) · 47 history records