Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:31:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A4 0xa4f2…29c2 crypto 1027 markets active 3h ago coverage 19d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 19d only
✗ bot/MM pace (147 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$339 (-5%) realized −$339 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate60%676W / 460L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day147.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$360
7 days−$385
14 days−$458
30 days−$561
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$210
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (147 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-25.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 673 -18.9% -26.7% 68% 15% -20.6%
≤30d 1136 -17.1% -25.0% 60% 15% -17.2%
≤90d 1136 -17.1% -25.0% 60% 15% -17.2%
all 1136 -17.1% -25.0% 60% 15% -17.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover147.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.0% 15% -17.2%
10% ← realistic here -32.2% 6% -25.1%
15% -38.7% 3% -32.3%
20% -44.7% 2% -39.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$339
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses676 / 460
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1136 / 1027
History coverage19d ⚠
Avg bet$6
Trades / day147.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1136 Trades
no open positions (240 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on May 8? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on May 12? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on May 8? Jun 17 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on May 11? Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$9 -410%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on May 12? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $0 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $0 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET SELL Up 32¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET SELL Down 33¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET SELL Up 68¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET SELL Down 44¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Up 33¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Down 41¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Up 80¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Down 72¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Up 41¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Up 70¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Down 46¢ $2 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.00 · official $0.00 · 3500 history records