Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:34:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A4 0xa4f0…c480 other 55 markets active 0h ago coverage 550d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$25 (+0%) realized −$34 · open +$59
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +21% what you keep after slip
Net edge+21%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate56%29W / 23L
Whale WR46%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$482per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$1,277now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$100
7 days−$100
14 days−$109
30 days−$109
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$15
sports 17% +$1
economics 14% +$227
world 13% −$219
politics 7% +$76
tech 2% −$64
crypto 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)+20.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -20.2% -27.8% 33% 0% -23.2%
≤30d 9 -16.7% -24.7% 22% 0% -14.6%
≤90d 20 -7.6% -16.4% 50% 5% -12.2%
all 52 +33.7% +20.9% 56% 10% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +20.9% 10% -9.7%
10% +9.4% 8% -18.4%
15% -1.2% 6% -26.2%
20% -10.9% 6% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 64% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +34% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 46% (≥$540) neutral
Persistence
early +71% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$19 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

550d coverage
Net worth$1,277
Realized−$34
Unrealized+$59
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses29 / 23
Whale WR (big bets)46%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)52 / 55
History coverage550d
Avg bet$482
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Trump out as President before 2027? No 84¢ 90¢ $1,008 $1,074 +$66 (+7%)
Brian Armstrong out as Coinbase CEO before 2027? No 92¢ 92¢ $103 $103 +$0 (+0%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 87¢ 81¢ $107 $100 −$7 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? Jun 23 $182 −$28 -15%
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Boston Celtics in 2026-27? Jun 23 $59 −$59 -100%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 23 $198 −$14 -7%
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by December 31? Jun 23 $63 $0 +0%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 Week of June 22 2026? Jun 23 $14 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 23 $145 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $196 −$2 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $1,063 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $23 −$7 -28%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 20? May 20 $386 −$37 -10%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 21? May 20 $807 −$144 -18%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22? May 20 $75 −$8 -10%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27? May 20 $243 $0 +0%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 20 $495 +$1 +0%
Xi Jinping out before 2027? May 20 $880 +$52 +6%
Genius FDV above $50M one day after launch? May 20 $195 +$5 +2%
Genius FDV above $80M one day after launch? May 20 $172 +$28 +16%
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 10 $79 +$4 +5%
Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by March 31? Apr 03 $199 +$1 +1%
Trump out as President by March 31? Apr 03 $571 +$29 +5%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Feb 27 $592 +$5 +1%
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jan 29 $40 −$10 -26%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 29 $540 +$15 +3%
Will no CEO be announced in 2025? Dec 23 $110 +$2 +2%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Dec 23 $998 +$6 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 23 $220 +$180 +82%
Will Google (GOOGL) hit $335 before 2026?? Dec 04 $56 −$56 -100%
Will Trump refrain from announcing a next Fed Chair in 2025? Dec 04 $20 +$14 +68%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 04 $30 −$4 -14%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? Nov 13 $108 +$2 +2%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Nov 13 $138 +$1 +1%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 25 $19 −$3 -18%
Will Trump announce Howard Lutnick as next Fed Chair in 2025? Oct 01 $2 +$2 +100%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 04 $23 −$5 -20%
Will Elon tweet 210–224 times July 18–25? Aug 28 $58 $0 +1%
Will Tommy Paul win Wimbledon 2025? Jun 28 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Angelo Scola be the next pope? Jun 28 $30 −$8 -26%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? Jun 28 $23 +$1 +3%
Will the Houston Rockets win the Western Conference? Jun 28 $193 +$3 +2%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000.00 by March 31? Apr 23 $51 +$2 +3%
Will Ethereum hit $8,000.00 by March 31? Apr 23 $106 +$1 +1%
Linea airdrop in 2024? Feb 28 $10 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in December? Feb 28 $16 $0 +1%
Farcaster airdrop in 2024? Feb 28 $20 $0 +1%
Will Gemini have the top AI model on December 31? Feb 28 $16 +$6 +35%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in December? Dec 25 $100 −$1 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2025 NBA Finals? Dec 25 $2,170 −$2 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 75+ bps after January 2025 meeting? Dec 24 $1,024 +$1 +0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the Western Conference? Dec 24 $4,100 −$4 -0%
Will the Chicago Bulls win the Eastern Conference? Dec 23 $4,100 −$4 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? SELL Yes 15¢ $9 5m
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Boston Celtics in 2026-27? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 9m
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? SELL Yes 17¢ $9 10m
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? SELL Yes 17¢ $34 1h
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? SELL Yes 16¢ $64 1h
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? SELL Yes 15¢ $30 1h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on SELL Yes 35¢ $67 1h
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? BUY Yes 17¢ $28 2h
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? SELL Yes 16¢ $9 2h
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by December 31? SELL Yes 21¢ $21 3h
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by December 31? SELL Yes 21¢ $42 3h
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? BUY Yes 18¢ $36 4h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on SELL No 58¢ $116 4h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on SELL Yes 44¢ $1 4h
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 4h
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 4h
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? BUY Yes 19¢ $4 4h
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 4h
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 4h
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? BUY Yes 20¢ $40 4h
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 Week of June 22 2026? SELL No 61¢ $14 4h
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Boston Celtics in 2026-27? BUY Yes 59¢ $59 5h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY Yes 43¢ $9 6h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY Yes 43¢ $9 6h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY Yes 43¢ $0 6h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY Yes 43¢ $0 6h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY Yes 43¢ $0 6h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY Yes 43¢ $0 6h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY Yes 43¢ $22 6h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY Yes 43¢ $0 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,277.27 · official $1,277.29 (match) · 682 history records