Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T20:13:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
A4 0xa4ef…97b2 sports 88 markets active 1h ago coverage 14d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this sports specialistFresh edge
Total PnL +$483 (+12%) realized +$484 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +9% what you keep after slip
Net edge+9%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate55%38W / 31L
Drawdown68%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day7.8pace
Fees−$43est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$479now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$99
7 days+$414
14 days+$815
30 days+$815
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 66% +$484
other 29% +$84
crypto 5% +$245
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)+13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 +24.1% +12.3% 56% 56% +7.0%
≤30d 69 +25.9% +13.9% 55% 55% +12.8%
≤90d 69 +25.9% +13.9% 55% 55% +12.8%
all 69 +25.9% +13.9% 55% 55% +12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +13.9% 55% +12.8%
10% +3.0% 55% +2.0%
15% -6.9% 52% -7.9%
20% -16.1% 48% -16.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +25% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +26% · $-wt +25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +24% → late +28% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$59 vs −$46 · ×1.28 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.57 per $1 lost it wins $1.57
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$479
Realized+$484
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses38 / 31
Est. fees paid−$43
Open positions11
Markets (closed)69 / 88
History coverage14d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day7.8
Drawdown68%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 69 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Yes 37¢ 36¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 Under 57¢ 60¢ $50 $53 +$3 (+6%)
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Under 68¢ 69¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Belgium 65¢ 64¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Over 65¢ 62¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-4%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 61¢ 96¢ $30 $47 +$17 (+57%)
Spread: France (-1.5) France 36¢ 81¢ $20 $45 +$25 (+126%)
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Over 42¢ 32¢ $50 $39 −$11 (-23%)
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Yes 55¢ 28¢ $50 $26 −$24 (-48%)
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 28¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+6%)
Senegal vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 38¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 30 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $50 +$50 +100%
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 26 $102 +$142 +140%
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $102 +$98 +97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $102 −$100 -98%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $24 −$24 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $124 −$122 -98%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $51 +$53 +105%
Czechia vs. Mexico: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $61 −$60 -98%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $20 +$31 +152%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $51 +$30 +60%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 24 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $51 +$34 +67%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $30 +$27 +89%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $51 +$51 +101%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 23 $51 +$33 +65%
Spread: France (-2.5) AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Arge Jun 23 $51 +$221 +432%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $51 +$44 +86%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $101 +$74 +73%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 22 $51 +$25 +50%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $102 +$187 +184%
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Jun 22 $10 +$18 +172%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Jun 21 $51 +$155 +302%
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 21 $31 −$30 -98%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 20 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $61 +$32 +52%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $99 +$69 +70%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $102 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $101 +$70 +70%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $102 −$100 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $102 +$107 +105%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$74 +73%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $51 +$105 +206%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $51 −$50 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $30 +$26 +86%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $102 +$142 +140%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $51 +$45 +90%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $36 −$35 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$25 +250%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$31 +307%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $30 +$17 +55%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $20 +$26 +129%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Senegal vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 38¢ $10 32m
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 55¢ $51 1h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) AND Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 AND Will Cabo Ver BUY 11¢ $10 11h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 68¢ $50 11h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 65¢ $51 11h
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $20 11h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $51 11h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $102 11h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 42¢ $51 11h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 65¢ $51 11h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 61¢ $30 11h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 36¢ $20 11h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) AND Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 AND Will Cabo Ver BUY 10¢ $10 12h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) AND Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 AND Will Cabo Ver BUY 15¢ $10 12h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) AND Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 AND Will Cabo Ver BUY 15¢ $10 12h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) AND Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 AND Will Cabo Ver BUY 15¢ $10 12h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) AND Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 AND Senegal vs. BUY 4¢ $10 12h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 50¢ $50 16h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 50¢ $102 18h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 41¢ $102 18h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 50¢ $102 19h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $24 19h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 25¢ $22 19h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $101 33h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) AND Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY 20¢ $51 33h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 AND Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 AND W BUY 24¢ $51 40h
Czechia vs. Mexico: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 18¢ $10 42h
Czechia vs. Mexico: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 44¢ $51 42h
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $51 2d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Scotland 50¢ $51 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $478.60 · official $536.85 · 141 history records