Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:29:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A4 0xa4eb…393f crypto 412 markets active 7h ago coverage 13d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (190 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$264 (+1%) realized +$264 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate46%189W / 223L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$78per market
Trades / day190.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$24
7 days−$691
14 days−$188
30 days−$188
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$188
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (190 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-34.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 66 -18.3% -26.1% 52% 12% -14.7%
≤30d 412 -27.6% -34.5% 46% 15% -10.1%
≤90d 412 -27.6% -34.5% 46% 15% -10.1%
all 412 -27.6% -34.5% 46% 15% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover190.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -34.5% 15% -10.1%
10% ← realistic here -40.8% 10% -18.7%
15% -46.5% 8% -26.5%
20% -51.7% 6% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -37% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$10 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$264
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses189 / 223
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)412 / 412
History coverage13d
Avg bet$78
Trades / day190.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 412 Trades
no open positions (137 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 16 $64 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 16 $116 −$16 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 16 $161 +$5 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $28 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 16 $126 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $95 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $214 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $669 −$18 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $263 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $28 −$3 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $95 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $188 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $38 +$11 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $123 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $85 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $107 −$21 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $131 +$4 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $47 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $122 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $12 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $159 +$4 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $160 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $217 −$3 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $78 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $8 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $183 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $26 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $200 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 10 $55 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 10 $150 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 10 $14 −$3 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 10 $166 +$32 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 10 $276 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 10 $497 −$88 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 10 $207 +$9 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 10 $117 −$12 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 10 $162 +$19 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 10 $298 +$5 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 10 $16 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 10 $15 −$14 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 10 $57 −$2 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 10 $87 +$39 +45%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $11 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $14 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $11 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $11 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $13 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $21 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $6 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $17 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $40 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $36 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $24 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $18 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $13 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $14 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $73 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $16 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $19 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $10 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $27 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $3 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $8 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $30 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $8 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $25 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $36 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.32 · official $0.00 · 2753 history records