Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T17:41:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
A4 0xa4e8…6300 sports 368 markets active 0h ago coverage 422d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ Covers last 421d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$41,723 (-7%) realized −$42,116 · open +$393
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate56%205W / 161L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,572per market
Trades / day7.2pace
Fees−$1,319est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$2,288now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 422d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 50% −$23,936
other 43% +$15,617
crypto 7% +$1,064
world 1% +$2,994
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-16.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -1.6% -11.0% 53% 53% -10.1%
≤30d 63 -3.3% -12.5% 51% 51% -19.1%
≤90d 130 -9.2% -17.8% 52% 46% -23.2%
all 366 -7.2% -16.0% 56% 45% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.0% 45% -10.3%
10% -24.1% 40% -18.8%
15% -31.4% 34% -26.7%
20% -38.1% 26% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$1,998) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$818 vs −$1,070 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

422d coverage
Net worth$2,288
Realized−$42,116
Unrealized+$393
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses205 / 161
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$1,319
Open positions2
Markets (closed)366 / 368
History coverage422d ⚠
Avg bet$1,572
Trades / day7.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 366 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Parma: Sebastian Ofner vs Luca Van Assche Luca Van Assche 58¢ 76¢ $1,219 $1,587 +$368 (+30%)
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Simona Waltert Petra Marcinko 53¢ 55¢ $676 $701 +$26 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Kamilla Rakhimova vs Oksana Sele Jun 20 $3,022 −$1,351 -45%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Sofia Kenin vs Daria Snigur Jun 20 $2,225 +$1,047 +47%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: James Duckworth vs Giles Hussey Jun 20 $1,589 −$1,559 -98%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Anastasia Zakharova vs Lilli Tag Jun 20 $1,038 −$1,026 -99%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz Jun 20 $907 +$132 +15%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Emilio Nava vs Hamish Stewart Jun 20 $202 −$198 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $579 −$570 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $597 +$338 +57%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $579 +$355 +61%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,009 +$503 +50%
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt Jun 15 $1,971 +$1,321 +67%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $605 −$386 -64%
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston Jun 15 $185 −$70 -38%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 15 $797 −$13 -2%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $1,015 −$1,000 -98%
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Vera Zvonareva Jun 15 $320 +$235 +73%
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Liudmila Samsonova Jun 15 $1,298 +$1,053 +81%
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones Jun 15 $1,880 +$1,295 +69%
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider Jun 15 $1,157 −$1,151 -100%
Brescia: Kathinka von Deichmann vs Anastasiia Sobolieva Jun 15 $1,876 +$1,161 +62%
Dublin: Gauthier Onclin vs Kyrian Jacquet Jun 15 $1,500 −$1,475 -98%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 14 $631 +$568 +90%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $305 −$280 -92%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 14 $231 +$169 +73%
Tucuman: Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi vs Johan Alexander Rodriguez Jun 14 $582 +$317 +54%
Halle Open, Qualification: Mattia Bellucci vs Alex Bolt Jun 14 $999 +$650 +65%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $473 −$470 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $301 +$172 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $140 +$159 +113%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $248 −$106 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 09 $340 +$307 +90%
Lyon: Thomas Faurel vs Florent Bax Jun 09 $778 −$35 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 08 $266 +$234 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 08 $46 −$44 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 08 $57 −$57 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 08 $188 −$188 -100%
Kosice: Mathys Erhard vs Ivan Ivanov Jun 08 $300 −$300 -100%
Libema Open: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Panna Udvardy Jun 08 $1,010 −$1,010 -100%
Centurion: Devin Badenhorst vs Akira Santillan Jun 08 $1,110 −$1,110 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Linda Noskova vs Maria Sakkari Jun 08 $1,500 −$1,500 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Vit Kopriva vs Corentin Moutet Jun 08 $2,997 −$2,997 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 08 $207 +$150 +73%
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 08 $1,128 −$65 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 08 $45 +$55 +123%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 08 $338 +$325 +96%
HSBC Championships: Laura Siegemund vs Francesca Jones Jun 08 $884 −$26 -3%
Ilkley: Darja Vidmanova vs Linda Fruhvirtova Jun 08 $1,038 +$383 +37%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 08 $197 −$32 -16%
HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Liudmila Samsonova Jun 08 $1,016 +$225 +22%
Ilkley: Harry Wendelken vs Jack Pinnington Jones Jun 08 $1,005 +$493 +49%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Simona Waltert BUY Petra Marcinko 53¢ $685 2m
Parma: Sebastian Ofner vs Luca Van Assche BUY Luca Van Assche 58¢ $23 5m
Parma: Sebastian Ofner vs Luca Van Assche BUY Luca Van Assche 58¢ $1,211 5m
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Kamilla Rakhimova vs Oksana Sele SELL Kamilla Rakhimova 33¢ $1,671 9m
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Kamilla Rakhimova vs Oksana Sele BUY Kamilla Rakhimova 58¢ $803 20m
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Kamilla Rakhimova vs Oksana Sele BUY Kamilla Rakhimova 58¢ $58 20m
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Kamilla Rakhimova vs Oksana Sele BUY Kamilla Rakhimova 58¢ $117 20m
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Kamilla Rakhimova vs Oksana Sele BUY Kamilla Rakhimova 58¢ $21 20m
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Kamilla Rakhimova vs Oksana Sele BUY Kamilla Rakhimova 58¢ $3 20m
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Kamilla Rakhimova vs Oksana Sele BUY Kamilla Rakhimova 58¢ $2,020 20m
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Sofia Kenin vs Daria Snigur SELL Daria Snigur 91¢ $3,273 21m
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Sofia Kenin vs Daria Snigur BUY Daria Snigur 59¢ $5 38m
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Sofia Kenin vs Daria Snigur BUY Daria Snigur 61¢ $2,220 39m
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: James Duckworth vs Giles Hussey BUY James Duckworth 40¢ $189 51m
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: James Duckworth vs Giles Hussey BUY James Duckworth 34¢ $1,401 51m
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Anastasia Zakharova vs Lilli Tag BUY Lilli Tagger 60¢ $1,038 1h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz SELL Taylor Fritz 65¢ $3 1h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz SELL Taylor Fritz 65¢ $1,037 1h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 56¢ $907 2h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Emilio Nava vs Hamish Stewart BUY Emilio Nava 18¢ $26 2h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Emilio Nava vs Hamish Stewart BUY Emilio Nava 18¢ $176 2h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $579 17h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $935 44h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $597 46h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 98¢ $934 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 60¢ $579 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,511 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $1,009 3d
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt SELL Nick Hardt 92¢ $2,125 4d
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt SELL Nick Hardt 90¢ $1,167 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,288.23 · official $2,288.23 (match) · 3500 history records