Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:34:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A4 0xa4e8…ff03 sports 1195 markets active 0h ago coverage 67d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 67d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,406 (-2%) realized −$1,410 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate55%651W / 536L
Whale WR42%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day31.5pace
Fees−$726est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 67d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% −$3,027
other 17% −$480
politics 0% −$6
world 0% +$34
crypto 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-3.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +54.2% +39.5% 53% 53% +79.5%
≤30d 165 -4.4% -13.5% 48% 48% -44.0%
≤90d 1187 +6.6% -3.6% 55% 54% -14.3%
all 1187 +6.6% -3.6% 55% 54% -14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.6% 54% -14.3%
10% ← realistic here -12.8% 52% -22.5%
15% -21.2% 43% -30.0%
20% -29.0% 37% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 42% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +12% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$56 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

67d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized−$1,410
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses651 / 536
Whale WR (big bets)42%
Est. fees paid−$726
Open positions8
Markets (closed)1187 / 1195
History coverage67d ⚠
Avg bet$55
Trades / day31.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 1187 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys Magdalena Frech 54¢ 34¢ $11 $7 −$4 (-36%)
Brescia: Julia Grabher vs Chloe Paquet Julia Grabher 71¢ 100¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+41%)
Brescia: Mia Ristic vs Deborah Chiesa Mia Ristic 56¢ 74¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+33%)
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Marton Fucsovics Marton Fucsovics 34¢ 36¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+4%)
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys Eva Lys 56¢ 66¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+17%)
Brescia: Darya Astakhova vs Noemi Basiletti Darya Astakhova 62¢ 78¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+25%)
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell Ann Li 50¢ 50¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Figueira Da Foz: Yeon-Woo Ku vs Lucrezia Stefanini Lucrezia Stefanini 61¢ 60¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Halle Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Raphael Collignon Raphael Collignon 62¢ 96¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+54%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 16 $1 +$1 +55%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $22 +$10 +46%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 16 $3 +$1 +32%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $6 +$9 +152%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2 +$3 +165%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5 Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $4 +$2 +67%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $1 +$1 +97%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $2 +$2 +93%
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt Jun 15 $1 +$1 +70%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Liudmila Samsonova Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $5 +$5 +93%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $3 +$13 +365%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$3 +60%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $6 +$4 +65%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $2 −$1 -76%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $7 +$108 +1442%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +33%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 10 $1 +$2 +165%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 9.5 Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5 Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $1 $0 +27%
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $2 $0 +26%
Set Handicap: Zverev (-2.5) vs Cobolli (+2.5) Jun 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $12 −$12 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (Middleweight, Mai Jun 07 $2 +$1 +57%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $2 +$1 +46%
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 06 $6 +$8 +134%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 06 $5 +$1 +24%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-7.5) Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 05 $6 +$2 +30%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5 Jun 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 05 $8 −$8 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 04 $1 +$1 +52%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $2 +$3 +165%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brescia: Mia Ristic vs Deborah Chiesa BUY Mia Ristic 57¢ $2 10m
Brescia: Mia Ristic vs Deborah Chiesa BUY Mia Ristic 54¢ $1 11m
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell BUY Ann Li 52¢ $1 17m
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell BUY Ann Li 49¢ $1 19m
Figueira Da Foz: Yeon-Woo Ku vs Lucrezia Stefanini BUY Lucrezia Stefanini 61¢ $2 21m
Brescia: Darya Astakhova vs Noemi Basiletti BUY Darya Astakhova 62¢ $2 21m
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Marton Fucsovics BUY Marton Fucsovics 34¢ $4 42m
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys BUY Magdalena Frech 56¢ $1 50m
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys BUY Magdalena Frech 56¢ $1 50m
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys BUY Eva Lys 56¢ $3 1h
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys BUY Magdalena Frech 49¢ $1 1h
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys BUY Magdalena Frech 54¢ $1 1h
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys BUY Magdalena Frech 52¢ $1 1h
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys BUY Magdalena Frech 53¢ $2 1h
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys BUY Magdalena Frech 55¢ $1 1h
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys BUY Magdalena Frech 54¢ $2 1h
Brescia: Julia Grabher vs Chloe Paquet BUY Julia Grabher 71¢ $4 1h
Halle Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Raphael Collignon BUY Raphael Collignon 62¢ $1 2h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 64¢ $1 7h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 7h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 39¢ $6 8h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $5 8h
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) BUY New Zealand 75¢ $3 9h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 50¢ $10 10h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 47¢ $6 10h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 47¢ $8 10h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 47¢ $1 10h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Miami Marlins 36¢ $3 12h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 55¢ $2 12h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 37¢ $2 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.00 · official $29.43 · 3500 history records