Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T21:59:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
A4 0xa4e6…ddfc crypto 71 markets active 1h ago coverage 28d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this Fading edge
Total PnL +$25 (+2%) realized +$25 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +9% what you keep after slip
Net edge+9%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate52%37W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$54
7 days+$39
14 days+$39
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 55% +$5
sports 32% +$41
other 13% −$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)+13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +14.7% +3.8% 54% 54% +0.6%
≤30d 71 +25.9% +13.9% 52% 52% -9.2%
≤90d 71 +25.9% +13.9% 52% 52% -9.2%
all 71 +25.9% +13.9% 52% 52% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +13.9% 52% -9.2%
10% +3.0% 46% -17.9%
15% -7.0% 38% -25.8%
20% -16.1% 27% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +26% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +55% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$16 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$25
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses37 / 34
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)71 / 71
History coverage28d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 71 Trades
no open positions (20 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $15 +$11 +70%
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $23 +$16 +67%
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 28 $12 −$12 -99%
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 28 $12 +$14 +114%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 28 $13 −$6 -43%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $21 +$14 +67%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $38 −$28 -74%
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $7 −$7 -98%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 27 $17 +$8 +49%
Panama vs. England: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $12 +$9 +76%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 27 $11 −$1 -6%
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $12 −$1 -5%
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $16 −$15 -99%
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 27 $7 +$12 +165%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $12 +$8 +62%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $12 +$8 +70%
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 27 $6 +$14 +238%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $23 +$10 +42%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $10 −$1 -6%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $11 +$4 +38%
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) Jun 26 $8 +$5 +66%
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $27 +$6 +23%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $10 −$9 -98%
Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $9 −$1 -6%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $9 −$9 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $12 −$12 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 11 $15 −$15 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 11 $23 −$8 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 11 $18 +$7 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 11 $19 −$12 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 11 $18 +$6 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 11 $18 −$18 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 11 $18 −$10 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 11 $18 +$4 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 10 $16 +$3 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 10 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 10 $25 +$7 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 10 $25 +$6 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 10 $6 −$2 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 10 $4 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 10 $15 −$10 -66%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 10 $16 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 10 $18 −$17 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 10 $57 −$55 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 10 $25 +$6 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 09 $26 +$11 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 09 $26 +$29 +112%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? SELL Yes 100¢ $26 1h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 97¢ $39 1h
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 58¢ $12 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 58¢ $15 17h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $23 17h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $25 17h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) SELL Argentina 25¢ $7 18h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 22h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 45¢ $7 22h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 59¢ $9 22h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 53¢ $9 22h
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 100¢ $25 23h
Panama vs. England: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $20 23h
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 66¢ $0 37h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 49¢ $4 37h
Spread: England (-2.5) SELL England 42¢ $11 38h
Panama vs. England: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 56¢ $12 38h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 47¢ $9 38h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 48¢ $12 39h
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY England 43¢ $11 39h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 47¢ $12 39h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Argentina 42¢ $13 39h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 46¢ $12 39h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 48¢ $7 39h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 48¢ $12 39h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 59¢ $12 39h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 61¢ $16 39h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 66¢ $17 39h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $19 40h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $20 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 154 history records