Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T16:36:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score

A4 0xa4e4…210f crypto 14 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$3 (-1%) realized +$24 · open −$27

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip

Net edge-8%after slip

Net WR54%break-even

Win rate54%7W / 6L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$16per market

Trades / day26.0pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$60now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +54%

net ROI/market (all)+7.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	13	+19.3%	+7.9%	54%	54%	-18.1%
≤30d	13	+19.3%	+7.9%	54%	54%	-18.1%
≤90d	13	+19.3%	+7.9%	54%	54%	-18.1%
all	13	+19.3%	+7.9%	54%	54%	-18.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover26.0 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	+7.9%	54%	-18.1%
10% ← realistic here	-2.4%	54%	-25.9%
15%	-11.8%	54%	-33.1%
20%	-20.5%	54%	-39.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 34% · top 2 64% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +19% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +20% → late +18% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$9 vs −$12 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.83 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$60

Realized+$24

Unrealized−$27

Win rate (resolved)54%

Wins / losses7 / 6

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions1

Markets (closed)13 / 14

History coverage1d

Avg bet$16

Trades / day26.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 13 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5	Over	69¢	48¢	$88	$61	−$27 (-31%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	Jun 15	$4	+$4	+101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	Jun 15	$4	−$4	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	Jun 15	$8	+$6	+73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	Jun 15	$4	+$5	+130%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	Jun 15	$6	−$4	-64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	Jun 15	$2	+$3	+119%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 15?	Jun 15	$31	−$29	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET	Jun 15	$2	+$3	+159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	Jun 15	$5	−$5	-97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	Jun 15	$5	−$5	-97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	Jun 15	$10	+$20	+193%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	Jun 15	$26	+$18	+71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	Jun 15	$26	−$25	-96%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	49¢	$18	4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	BUY Down	48¢	$4	10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	BUY Down	46¢	$4	16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	SELL Down	90¢	$14	18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	BUY Down	50¢	$4	22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	BUY Down	50¢	$4	23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	SELL Up	97¢	$10	26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	BUY Up	41¢	$2	28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	BUY Up	40¢	$2	30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	BUY Up	3¢	$2	33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	BUY Up	13¢	$2	35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	SELL Down	86¢	$2	35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	BUY Down	71¢	$2	35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	SELL Up	77¢	$5	36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	BUY Up	33¢	$2	37m
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 15?	SELL Down	0¢	$2	38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET	BUY Up	37¢	$2	45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	BUY Down	54¢	$5	51m
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	77¢	$70	54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	BUY Up	50¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$31	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	BUY Up	27¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	BUY Up	40¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	BUY Down	57¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	BUY Down	46¢	$26	1h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 15?	BUY Down	2¢	$31	2h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $60.50 · official $60.50 (match) · 33 history records