Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:45:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
A4 0xa4e4…c62a sports 1504 markets active 0h ago coverage 116d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 116d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$27 (+0%) realized +$19 · open +$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate50%682W / 682L
Drawdown23%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day23.5pace
Fees−$112est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$401now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$39
7 days+$100
14 days+$400
30 days+$627
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% +$743
other 7% +$50
world 1% +$3
tech 0% +$1
politics 0% +$1
finance 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-4.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 198 -1.8% -11.1% 46% 45% -0.8%
≤30d 820 +12.1% +1.5% 52% 52% +3.5%
≤90d 1248 +7.7% -2.5% 51% 50% +1.4%
all 1364 +5.7% -4.4% 50% 49% -0.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.4% 49% -0.5%
10% ← realistic here -13.5% 49% -10.0%
15% -21.9% 48% -18.7%
20% -29.5% 44% -26.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$4 · ×1.22 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.22 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$401
Realized+$19
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses682 / 682
Est. fees paid−$112
Open positions62
Markets (closed)1364 / 1504
History coverage116d ⚠
Avg bet$5
Trades / day23.5
Drawdown23%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 62 History 1364 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score No 56¢ 81¢ $20 $29 +$9 (+47%)
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Argentina 38¢ 98¢ $8 $20 +$12 (+153%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Houston Astros 61¢ 92¢ $12 $18 +$6 (+52%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Over 48¢ 100¢ $8 $17 +$9 (+108%)
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5 Under 49¢ 80¢ $8 $13 +$5 (+62%)
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Yes 44¢ 44¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+1%)
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jordan 57¢ 56¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-0%)
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Colorado Rockies 34¢ 96¢ $4 $11 +$7 (+181%)
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery Arthur Fery 50¢ 46¢ $12 $11 −$1 (-9%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Atlanta Braves 60¢ 54¢ $12 $11 −$1 (-11%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Under 74¢ 55¢ $12 $9 −$3 (-26%)
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Under 48¢ 48¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Haiti 60¢ 48¢ $9 $7 −$2 (-21%)
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5 Under 40¢ 68¢ $4 $7 +$3 (+70%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 11¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+36%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: Draw at halftime? No 59¢ 100¢ $4 $7 +$3 (+69%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 47¢ 52¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+11%)
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5 Under 49¢ 74¢ $4 $6 +$2 (+51%)
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5 Under 32¢ 48¢ $4 $6 +$2 (+48%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 14¢ 16¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+18%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 68¢ 100¢ $4 $6 +$2 (+47%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Under 69¢ 100¢ $4 $6 +$2 (+45%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+10%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+9%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Over 74¢ 100¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+35%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 430 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Vanilla Ninja win Eesti Laul 2026? Jun 17 $1 −$2 -394%
Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles vs. Lindenwood Lions: O/U 150.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2026-02-03? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Rangers vs. Sharks: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Al Ettifaq Saudi Club win on 2026-02-03? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Wild vs. Oilers Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-18.5) Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-02-03? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-01-20? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Stade Lavallois Mayenne FC win on 2026-02-04? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Panathinaikós AO vs. FC Viktoria Plzeň end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will KF Shkëndija 79 vs. Samsunspor end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: 76ers (-6.5) Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Capitals vs. Oilers: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will St Mirren FC vs. Heart of Midlothian FC end in a draw? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Nets vs. Clippers: O/U 211.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will ES Troyes AC win on 2026-02-04? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bulls vs. Heat Jun 17 $2 −$2 -103%
SS Juve Stabia vs. Virtus Entella: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Butler Bulldogs (-6.5) Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump talk to Emmanuel Macron in January? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-02-03? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-11.5) Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Logan Paul 1st Edition Charizard sale price be over 700k? Jun 17 $4 −$3 -91%
Will Águilas Doradas Rionegro win on 2026-01-25? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-01-31? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Stars vs. Sharks Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-02-04? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Panathinaikós AO win on 2026-02-19? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will CA Banfield win on 2026-02-03? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will FC St. Pauli 1910 win on 2026-02-03? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will FC Rapid 1923 win on 2026-02-03? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Pistons (-9.5) Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Open Sud de France: Valentin Royer vs Arthur Fils Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-01-28? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bologna FC 1909 vs. AC Milan end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
SNHL: Lugano vs. Davos Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bolsova vs. Lepchenko: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-02-03? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-01-28? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Venezia FC win on 2026-01-24? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Central Connecticut State Blue Devils (-6.5) Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Jesus Christ return before 2027 Odds >5% February 17, 12-1 AM? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -90%
Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2026-02-03? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Stade de Reims win on 2026-02-03? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Ostrava Open: Tamara Korpatsch vs Emiliana Arango Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Heat vs. Bulls Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 48¢ $4 4m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 25¢ $4 7m
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 56¢ $4 8m
Seattle Storm vs. PortlandFire: O/U 162.5 BUY Over 49¢ $4 11m
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Algeria 16¢ $4 19m
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 19m
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 177.5 BUY Under 53¢ $4 24m
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 177.5 BUY Over 50¢ $4 30m
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky BUY Chicago Sky 20¢ $4 39m
Austria leading at halftime? BUY No 50¢ $4 43m
Honor of Kings: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs Talent Gaming (BO5) - King Pro BUY Dragon Ranger Gaming 47¢ $4 49m
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 56¢ $4 1h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 53¢ $4 1h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 57¢ $4 1h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $4 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 48¢ $4 1h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 57¢ $4 1h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 57¢ $4 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $4 1h
Fortaleza EC vs. América FC: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 9¢ $2 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 69¢ $4 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Draw at halftime? BUY No 59¢ $4 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 38¢ $4 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $4 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY No 54¢ $4 2h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Algeria 64¢ $4 2h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $4 2h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $4 2h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 24¢ $4 2h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $4 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $401.29 · official $396.49 · 3500 history records