Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T09:24:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A4 0xa4e3…7716 politics 180 markets active 1h ago coverage 140d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,481 (-0%) realized −$1,481 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate22%39W / 140L
Whale WR2%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,692per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$806now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$35
14 days+$56
30 days+$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 52% −$191
other 30% +$173
sports 8% −$1,495
economics 4% −$9
culture 3% −$13
world 2% −$1
tech 1% −$4
crypto 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -0.1% -9.6% 8% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 65 +3.9% -6.0% 14% 9% -9.5%
≤90d 117 -8.1% -16.9% 9% 5% -10.3%
all 179 -1.0% -10.4% 22% 9% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 9% -10.0%
10% -19.0% 9% -18.6%
15% -26.8% 8% -26.5%
20% -34.0% 7% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
59% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 2% (≥$2,417) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -5% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$17 · ×1.22 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

140d coverage
Net worth$806
Realized−$1,481
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses39 / 140
Whale WR (big bets)2%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)179 / 180
History coverage140d
Avg bet$1,692
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 179 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $806 $806 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $807 −$1 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 18 $1,049 −$1 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 17 $880 −$1 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $1,082 −$2 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $1,116 −$1 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $4,042 −$6 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $1,345 −$2 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec Jun 14 $1,395 −$1 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $5,975 −$8 -0%
Will SpaceX IPO by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $178 $0 +0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $5,311 −$7 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 12 $2,540 −$4 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $1,092 −$2 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $3,548 −$4 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $4,254 −$5 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $2,228 −$3 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $5,734 −$6 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $2,689 −$4 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $2,209 −$3 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $5,244 −$7 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $3,268 −$4 -0%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $72 +$73 +101%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 06 $2,512 −$3 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $2,404 −$3 -0%
Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 05 $80 +$63 +79%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $1,105 −$2 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $3,684 −$6 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $1,457 −$2 -0%
Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 03 $55 −$55 -100%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $2,718 −$3 -0%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 02 $59 +$38 +65%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 02 $290 +$1 +0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 01 $754 −$1 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $397 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? Jun 01 $515 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $1,594 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $3,040 −$4 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 30 $1,169 −$2 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $1,769 −$2 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $1,249 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $491 −$1 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 29 $1,651 −$3 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 29 $1,232 −$2 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $6,577 −$7 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $4,448 −$6 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $2,149 −$2 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $511 −$1 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $2,555 −$4 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $15,061 −$14 -0%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Milwaukee Brewers May 25 $67 +$42 +62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $806 1h
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $806 2h
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $807 4h
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,047 4h
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,049 6h
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $879 23h
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $880 24h
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,081 46h
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,082 2d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,115 2d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,116 2d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $1,384 2d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,387 3d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,343 3d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,345 3d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec SELL No 100¢ $1,394 3d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec BUY No 100¢ $1,395 4d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,389 4d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,391 5d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,114 5d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,116 6d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1,218 6d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,220 6d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,090 7d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,092 7d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,219 7d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,221 7d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $1,221 7d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $1,223 7d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,224 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $805.86 · official $805.86 (match) · 696 history records