Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T04:44:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A4
0xa4e3…a3d0
crypto · 23 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$20 -13%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$5 · open −$25
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized+$5
Unrealized−$25
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses12 / 10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)22 / 23
History coverage1d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day39.0
Drawdown88%
Kalshi-fit96%
Chart Positions 1 History 22 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$5
14 days+$5
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Down 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Down 11¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Up 25¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Down 32¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Down 20¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Down 36¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 13 $11 −$10 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 13 $11 +$4 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 13 $7 +$8 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 13 $11 +$6 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$2 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 13 $11 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 13 $11 +$15 +137%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 12 $7 +$10 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$3 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 83% +$5
other 17% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $11 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $15 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $11 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $2 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $15 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $7 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $5 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $17 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $11 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET SELL Down 64¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $5 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $26 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $11 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET SELL Down 66¢ $12 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET SELL Down 71¢ $6 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $3 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-17.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -9.1% -17.7% 55% 55% -6.2%
≤30d 22 -9.1% -17.7% 55% 55% -6.2%
≤90d 22 -9.1% -17.7% 55% 55% -6.2%
all 22 -9.1% -17.7% 55% 55% -6.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover39.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.7% 55% -6.2%
10% ← realistic here -25.6% 45% -15.2%
15% -32.8% 41% -23.4%
20% -39.4% 27% -30.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.07 · official $0.07 (match) · 44 history records