Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T00:47:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A4 0xa4e3…075e other 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$29 (+33%) realized +$29 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +66% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +39% what you keep after slip
Net edge+39%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate12%1W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day16.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 74% −$47
sports 26% +$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)+50.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +66.0% +50.2% 12% 12% -12.1%
≤30d 8 +66.0% +50.2% 12% 12% -12.1%
≤90d 8 +66.0% +50.2% 12% 12% -12.1%
all 8 +66.0% +50.2% 12% 12% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +50.2% 12% -12.1%
10% +35.8% 12% -20.5%
15% +22.7% 12% -28.2%
20% +10.7% 12% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -27% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +66% · $-wt -27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$50 vs −$9 · ×5.37 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$29
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses1 / 7
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)8 / 8
History coverage1d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day16.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 8 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $31 −$20 -64%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -92%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $25 −$19 -76%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $4 +$50 +1217%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 44¢ $20 1h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 1h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 1h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 3¢ $4 1h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? SELL Yes 34¢ $6 1h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 1h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 3¢ $10 1h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 6¢ $14 13h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 13h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 13h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 13h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 93¢ $54 30h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 31h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 32h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 32h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 32h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 32h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 54¢ $10 32h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 22 history records