Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T04:57:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A4 0xa4e2…b698 crypto 205 markets active 1h ago coverage 134d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$639 (-2%) realized −$639 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate54%111W / 94L
Whale WR78%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$173per market
Trades / day11.8pace
Fees−$119est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$343
7 days−$1,581
14 days−$1,371
30 days−$1,136
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 70% −$312
sports 28% −$972
other 1% +$287
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 99 -21.7% -29.1% 42% 26% -15.1%
≤30d 184 -4.1% -13.2% 54% 40% -12.4%
≤90d 184 -4.1% -13.2% 54% 40% -12.4%
all 205 -1.8% -11.2% 54% 41% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 41% -12.0%
10% -19.7% 32% -20.5%
15% -27.4% 26% -28.2%
20% -34.6% 24% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 78% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +12% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
6.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$61 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$639
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses111 / 94
Whale WR (big bets)78%
Est. fees paid−$119
Open positions0
Markets (closed)205 / 205
History coverage134d
Avg bet$173
Trades / day11.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 205 Trades
no open positions (12 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 18 $1,506 +$92 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 18 $1,501 +$19 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 18 $1,503 +$19 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 18 $1,387 −$9 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 18 $88 −$48 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 18 $1,505 +$46 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 18 $157 −$155 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 18 $1,702 +$25 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 18 $1,601 +$15 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 18 $510 +$82 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 18 $303 +$39 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 18 $16 −$14 -90%
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 18 $1,674 −$85 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $223 −$175 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $63 −$37 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $88 −$83 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$9 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$9 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $16 −$11 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 17 $108 +$30 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $57 +$33 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $213 −$142 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $28 −$6 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 17 $120 −$52 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo Jun 17 $28 +$19 +68%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo Jun 17 $186 +$120 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 17 $19 +$15 +77%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Jun 17 $273 −$164 -60%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $274 +$33 +12%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $156 +$115 +74%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $149 +$10 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$17 +274%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $13 +$36 +287%
Call of Duty: Vancouver Surge vs Paris Gentle Mates (BO5) - Call of Du Jun 14 $361 −$10 -3%
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs Cloud9 New York (BO5) - Call of Duty Leag Jun 14 $214 +$17 +8%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $362 +$93 +26%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $639 −$577 -90%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $71 −$55 -77%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $600 +$94 +16%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $585 +$15 +2%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $527 +$59 +11%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $491 +$36 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 13 $127 +$38 +30%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $1,003 −$357 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 13 $16 −$16 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $501 +$48 +10%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $922 +$97 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $1,506 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1,501 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1,521 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1,503 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET SELL Up 88¢ $787 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET SELL Up 85¢ $591 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1,174 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET SELL Up 67¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1,551 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1,505 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1680 history records