Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T00:17:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A4 0xa4df…82e7 world 26 markets active 2h ago coverage 476d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized +$0 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate52%13W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 73% $0
other 15% −$1
sports 9% $0
politics 3% +$1
crypto 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-15.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 9 -10.3% -18.8% 44% 0% -9.0%
≤90d 9 -10.3% -18.8% 44% 0% -9.0%
all 25 -6.9% -15.8% 52% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.8% 0% -9.4%
10% -23.8% 0% -18.1%
15% -31.2% 0% -26.0%
20% -37.9% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 65% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

476d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized+$0
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses13 / 12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)25 / 26
History coverage476d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 93¢ 92¢ $47 $47 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $12 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $35 +$2 +4%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $89 −$1 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $53 −$2 -3%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $47 +$2 +4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $8 −$1 -15%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $48 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $38 +$1 +3%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 10 $38 $0 +0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 21 $2 $0 -3%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 National League Championship Dec 09 $1 $0 +3%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? Dec 09 $2 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $110K and $112K on June 17? Jun 18 $2 $0 +2%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 03 $1 $0 +3%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal majority? May 18 $2 $0 +2%
Will CDU/CSU and AfD form the next German Government? Apr 02 $16 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? Mar 31 $16 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 575-599 times March 28 - April 4? Mar 31 $16 $0 +1%
Will Kanye launch a coin in March? Mar 31 $15 $0 +0%
Will the LA Clippers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 29 $15 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 again by March 31? Mar 28 $2 −$1 -87%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 25 $17 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 575-599 times March 21-28? Mar 24 $17 −$1 -5%
Will Trae Young lead the NBA in Assists? Mar 21 $18 $0 +0%
Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian Presidential election by 0-5%? Mar 21 $17 +$1 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 93¢ $47 1h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 98¢ $12 6d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 98¢ $12 7d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $37 7d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $35 7d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 28¢ $6 7d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 28¢ $22 7d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 28¢ $14 7d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 28¢ $41 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 66¢ $51 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 68¢ $53 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $31 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $18 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $47 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 18¢ $7 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 21¢ $1 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 21¢ $7 8d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $48 9d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $48 9d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 63¢ $28 9d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 63¢ $20 9d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 64¢ $48 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 79¢ $5 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 79¢ $17 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 79¢ $17 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 77¢ $38 10d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $38 12d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $38 12d
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 96¢ $2 183d
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 National League Championship BUY No 98¢ $1 355d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.92 · official $46.92 (match) · 70 history records