Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:40:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
A4 0xa4dd…d571 other 29 markets active 2h ago coverage 82d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$11 (-0%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 29L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$418per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 59% −$22
world 18% −$2
politics 12% −$2
crypto 8% −$4
economics 1% $0
tech 1% $0
sports 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 29 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.8%
all 29 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$921) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$1 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 29
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)29 / 29
History coverage82d
Avg bet$418
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 29 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Jun 22 $46 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 22 $1,135 −$2 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 22 $1,175 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 22 $1,176 −$1 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 16 $130 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 16 $29 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 16 $24 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $100B and $200B at market close May 14 $38 $0 -0%
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 14 $49 $0 -0%
Xi meets with Iranian officials by May 15? May 14 $976 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $921 −$1 -0%
Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30? May 13 $912 −$3 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in May? May 13 $75 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? May 13 $889 −$3 -0%
Will DRX win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? May 12 $17 $0 -0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $887 −$10 -1%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $1,011 −$6 -1%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $38 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $1,052 −$1 -0%
Will Estonia be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? May 12 $973 −$1 -0%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 10 $121 $0 -0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 10 $42 $0 -0%
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 10 $24 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 06 $117 $0 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 06 $26 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Apr 06 $57 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 01 $95 $0 -0%
Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Apr 01 $21 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 01 $57 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $46 1h
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,133 1h
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $26 1h
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,072 1h
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $12 2h
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $9 2h
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $24 2h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $875 2h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $301 2h
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $38 3h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1,176 3h
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $91 37d
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $63 37d
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $29 37d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $10 37d
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $11 37d
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $14 37d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $14 37d
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $17 37d
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $15 37d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $24 37d
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $100B and $200B at market close SELL No 100¢ $38 39d
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $39 39d
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $100B and $200B at market close BUY No 100¢ $38 39d
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $39 39d
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $49 39d
Xi meets with Iranian officials by May 15? SELL No 100¢ $975 39d
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $22 39d
Xi meets with Iranian officials by May 15? BUY No 100¢ $922 39d
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $17 39d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 93 history records