Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T09:58:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
A4 0xa4dd…0fab crypto 25 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$139 (+5%) realized +$139 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate79%19W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$116per market
Trades / day30.4pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$77
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-0.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +9.8% -0.7% 79% 58% -12.0%
≤30d 24 +9.8% -0.7% 79% 58% -12.0%
≤90d 24 +9.8% -0.7% 79% 58% -12.0%
all 24 +9.8% -0.7% 79% 58% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -0.7% 58% -12.0%
10% ← realistic here -10.2% 38% -20.4%
15% -18.9% 29% -28.1%
20% -26.8% 21% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$109 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized+$139
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses19 / 5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)24 / 25
History coverage3d
Avg bet$116
Trades / day30.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 19 $51 +$43 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 19 $31 +$11 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 19 $205 −$100 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 19 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 19 $101 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 19 $102 +$53 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 19 $91 −$90 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 19 $52 +$40 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 19 $305 −$229 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 19 $203 +$31 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 19 $304 +$62 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 19 $102 +$25 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 19 $205 −$58 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 19 $201 +$10 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 16 $102 +$27 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 16 $101 +$15 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $102 +$22 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $101 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 16 $101 +$18 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 16 $82 +$45 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 16 $51 +$30 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $40 +$4 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $31 +$15 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 16 $145 −$66 -46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $28 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $13 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $52 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $51 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET SELL Down 81¢ $42 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $31 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $103 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET SELL Up 62¢ $83 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $102 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $22 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $12 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $21 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $43 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $100 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET SELL Down 92¢ $105 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $101 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Down 88¢ $112 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $102 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $91 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $92 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET SELL Up 7¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET SELL Up 10¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET SELL Up 40¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $120 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Down 87¢ $109 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.99 · official $4.99 (match) · 95 history records