Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T19:01:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A4 0xa4dd…847f crypto 1349 markets active 1h ago coverage 58d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 57d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,192 (-12%) realized −$2,192 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate57%768W / 581L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day34.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$81
7 days−$102
14 days−$0
30 days+$44
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$1,112
politics 1% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 59 -9.7% -18.3% 53% 53% -17.2%
≤30d 248 +0.3% -9.2% 56% 55% -8.7%
≤90d 1349 -4.1% -13.3% 57% 51% -15.2%
all 1349 -4.1% -13.3% 57% 51% -15.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.3% 51% -15.2%
10% ← realistic here -21.6% 46% -23.3%
15% -29.1% 41% -30.8%
20% -36.1% 25% -37.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$11 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,192
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses768 / 581
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1349 / 1349
History coverage58d ⚠
Avg bet$13
Trades / day34.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1349 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 16 $20 +$10 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 16 $21 +$16 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 16 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 16 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 16 $21 +$17 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $21 +$12 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $21 +$12 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 15 $21 +$11 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $21 +$18 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $21 +$14 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 15 $21 +$11 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $21 +$19 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 14 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 13 $21 +$15 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 12 $21 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 12 $20 +$9 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 12 $21 +$19 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 12 $20 +$10 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 12 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 12 $21 +$13 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 12 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 12 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 12 $21 +$13 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 12 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 12 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 12 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 12 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 12 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 12 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 11 $21 +$12 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 11 $21 +$15 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 11 $20 +$10 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 11 $21 +$15 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 11 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 11 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 11 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 11 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 11 $21 +$19 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 10 $21 +$19 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 10 $21 +$18 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 10 $21 +$20 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 10 $21 +$16 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 10 $25 −$16 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 10 $25 −$14 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 10 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 10 $21 +$13 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 10 $21 +$13 +65%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $20 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $21 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $21 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $21 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $21 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $21 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $21 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $21 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $21 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $21 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $21 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $21 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $21 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $21 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $21 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $20 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $21 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $20 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $21 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $21 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $21 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $21 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $21 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $21 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $21 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $21 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $21 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $21 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records