Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T14:32:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A4 0xa4db…652c crypto 77 markets active 0h ago coverage 546d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$85 (+1%) realized +$95 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate38%28W / 46L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown27%max
Avg bet$217per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$26
7 days−$26
14 days−$26
30 days−$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 47% −$7
other 32% −$22
politics 13% −$8
crypto 4% +$12
world 3% +$98
finance 1% −$7
culture 1% $0
tech 0% +$6
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-3.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -4.3% -13.4% 9% 9% -13.7%
≤30d 23 -4.3% -13.4% 9% 9% -13.7%
≤90d 23 -4.3% -13.4% 9% 9% -13.7%
all 74 +7.2% -3.1% 38% 15% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.1% 15% -9.1%
10% -12.3% 12% -17.8%
15% -20.8% 9% -25.7%
20% -28.6% 7% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 67% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
61% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +9% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×3.41 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.39 per $1 lost it wins $2.39
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

546d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized+$95
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses28 / 46
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)74 / 77
History coverage546d
Avg bet$217
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown27%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 74 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-6%)
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? Yes 22¢ 8¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-61%)
Will Alan Wilson win the South Carolina Republican Governor Primary Runoff by 10–15%? Yes 5¢ 1¢ $2 $1 −$2 (-78%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026? Jun 23 $15 $0 -1%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $14 $0 +0%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31? Jun 23 $20 −$1 -5%
Will David Trone be the Democratic nominee for MD-06? Jun 23 $8 $0 -3%
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? Jun 23 $19 −$1 -3%
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? Jun 23 $48 −$4 -8%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 26, 2026? Jun 23 $23 $0 -2%
Will Antonio Reynoso be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? Jun 23 $12 $0 -3%
Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in Jun 23 $6 −$1 -11%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? Jun 23 $14 −$1 -6%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 23 $104 −$13 -12%
Will the next UK Prime Minister be appointed by July 19? Jun 23 $8 +$1 +11%
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by June 30? Jun 23 $96 $0 -0%
Will Alan Wilson win the South Carolina Republican Governor Primary Ru Jun 23 $3 −$2 -50%
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? Jun 23 $34 −$1 -3%
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? Jun 23 $34 $0 -1%
GPT-5.6 released by July 24, 2026? Jun 23 $3 −$1 -24%
Will Cait Conley win the NY-17 Democratic Primary by more than 15%? Jun 23 $10 −$1 -10%
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 30? Jun 23 $46 $0 -1%
GPT-5.6 released by July 17, 2026? Jun 23 $4 −$1 -29%
Will Starmer officially leave office by July 31? Jun 23 $3 +$2 +73%
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $18 $0 -2%
Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12? Jun 23 $14 −$1 -7%
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31? Mar 09 $102 +$3 +3%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? Mar 09 $111 −$7 -6%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Mar 09 $103 +$5 +5%
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 09 $90 $0 +0%
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? Mar 06 $95 +$1 +1%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027? Mar 05 $18 +$15 +86%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by December 31, 2026? Mar 02 $120 +$80 +67%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? Jan 20 $118 +$2 +2%
Will Backpack launch a token by December 31? Jan 15 $40 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? Jan 15 $77 +$2 +2%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Dec 31 $11 +$9 +82%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Dec 31 $15 +$1 +6%
Will Solana reach $350 in October? Nov 14 $41 +$1 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $105K in August? Sep 22 $4 +$2 +41%
Will Solana reach $240 before 2026? Sep 22 $16 +$7 +41%
US-China tariff agreement before 90 day deadline? Aug 26 $5 +$1 +16%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? Aug 26 $16 $0 +2%
Will Solana reach $170 in July? Jul 17 $5 +$1 +28%
Will Solana reach $250 in July? Jul 17 $25 −$1 -3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $108K on July 1? Jul 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $106K and $108K on July 1? Jul 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $104K and $106K on July 1? Jul 13 $1 +$5 +525%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in June? Jul 13 $120 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $300 in May? Jun 29 $130 +$1 +1%
Will Solana reach $150 in April? May 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after May 2025 meeting? May 15 $6 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90k in April? May 15 $10 +$3 +28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026? SELL No 63¢ $13 7m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 72¢ $14 7m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 72¢ $2 9m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 72¢ $12 10m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026? BUY No 64¢ $13 14m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31? SELL No 39¢ $19 50m
Will David Trone be the Democratic nominee for MD-06? SELL Yes 15¢ $7 50m
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $3 50m
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? SELL Yes 11¢ $5 51m
Will David Trone be the Democratic nominee for MD-06? BUY Yes 15¢ $8 52m
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? BUY Yes 17¢ $8 59m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31? BUY No 40¢ $11 1h
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $4 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31? BUY No 40¢ $2 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31? BUY No 40¢ $7 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 1h
Will Antonio Reynoso be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? SELL Yes 23¢ $11 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 1h
Will Antonio Reynoso be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? BUY Yes 23¢ $12 1h
Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in SELL Yes 12¢ $6 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $6 1h
Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in BUY Yes 13¢ $6 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $0 1h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 46¢ $31 1h
Will the next UK Prime Minister be appointed by July 19? SELL No 43¢ $8 1h
Will the next UK Prime Minister be appointed by July 19? BUY No 38¢ $8 1h
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $48 2h
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $48 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.11 · official $32.11 (match) · 334 history records