Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T23:48:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A4
0xa4db…ed01
weather · 213 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$171 -21%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$167 · open −$4
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$41
Realized−$167
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses48 / 153
Open positions11
Markets (closed)201 / 213
History coverage220d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%
Chart Positions 11 History 201 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days+$9
14 days−$102
30 days−$102
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? No 42¢ 30¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-29%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 13? Yes 11¢ 32¢ $2 $6 +$4 (+179%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 13? No 61¢ 60¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on June 13? Yes 34¢ 34¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 13? No 66¢ 60¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-8%)
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Yes 24¢ 20¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-15%)
Will the lowest temperature in London be 12°C on June 13? Yes 9¢ 9¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? Yes 24¢ 12¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-48%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C or below on June 13? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 12? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 27°C on June 5? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on June 6? No 56¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 12? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the lowest temperature in London be 12°C on June 6? Yes 36¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the lowest temperature in London be 12°C on June 5? No 64¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 12? Yes 36¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Up 55¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 15°C on June 12? Yes 40¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 10? Yes 51¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 12? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 9? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Down 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 12? Yes 38¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on June 6? No 64¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$5 +103%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 +$4 +185%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $50 +$11 +22%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -99%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 15°C on June 12? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 12? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 +$2 +112%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 75°F or below on June 1 Jun 11 $5 +$2 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 +$16 +753%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 11°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 10? Jun 10 $2 +$2 +103%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on June 10? Jun 10 $2 +$3 +126%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C or below on June 10? Jun 10 $7 +$13 +180%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 10? Jun 10 $12 +$2 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 10 $17 −$10 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$8 +76%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 10°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 9°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 10? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 10 $16 +$7 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 10 $16 −$7 -45%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C or higher on June 11? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 12? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 10? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 10? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 +$2 +233%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 8? Jun 08 $1 $0 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 8? Jun 08 $1 +$2 +169%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on June 8? Jun 08 $1 +$4 +358%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 08 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 08 $10 −$10 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 27°C or below on June Jun 08 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 08 $5 +$6 +124%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $1 $0 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 08 $16 −$8 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 7? Jun 07 $1 +$1 +51%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 7? Jun 07 $1 +$1 +116%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 07 $25 +$25 +100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 36% +$9
crypto 20% −$20
other 18% −$129
politics 11% −$74
culture 7% −$49
world 4% +$110
tech 4% −$22
economics 1% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 13? BUY No 61¢ $5 56m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C or below on June 13? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 13? BUY No 66¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on June 13? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 9h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY 20¢ $5 9h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 9h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 13? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 10h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 12? BUY No 48¢ $5 10h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 12? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 10h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 12? BUY No 63¢ $10 11h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 12? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 15h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 12°C on June 13? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 18h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 12? BUY Yes 36¢ $2 19h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET SELL Down 69¢ $6 22h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $5 22h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 22h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 22h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 12? BUY Yes 72¢ $10 23h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 15°C on June 12? BUY Yes 40¢ $2 24h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 12? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 24h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 12? BUY Yes 84¢ $40 25h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 11? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 42h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 11? SELL Yes 95¢ $18 43h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 11°C on June 11? BUY Yes 37¢ $2 46h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 11? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C or below on June 10? BUY Yes 59¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET SELL Up 1¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET SELL Up 3¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-37.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 77 -6.8% -15.7% 42% 42% -6.6%
≤30d 134 -35.8% -41.9% 30% 29% -29.2%
≤90d 134 -35.8% -41.9% 30% 29% -29.2%
all 201 -31.3% -37.9% 24% 23% -40.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -37.9% 23% -40.5%
10% -43.8% 19% -46.2%
15% -49.2% 17% -51.4%
20% -54.2% 14% -56.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.89 · official $40.89 (match) · 418 history records