Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T23:06:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A4
0xa4d9…93fa
world · 54 markets active 1h ago
3.0score
+$2 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$2 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$45
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses33 / 19
Open positions2
Markets (closed)52 / 54
History coverage544d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%
Chart Positions 2 History 52 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$5
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+0%)
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-60%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $37 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 10 $46 −$1 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $16 +$1 +7%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $41 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $91 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 05 $20 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $67 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 05 $37 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 04 $62 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 03 $37 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 03 $41 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $165 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 01 $37 +$4 +12%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 29 $36 $0 +1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 29 $243 +$1 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 28 $41 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 25 $40 +$1 +3%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 25 $18 $0 +2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 24 $39 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 23 $34 +$2 +5%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 23 $7 $0 -6%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 14 $296 +$1 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 13 $2 $0 +12%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 11 $133 +$2 +1%
US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China? May 11 $229 $0 +0%
Will Palmeiras win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 07 $1 $0 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Dec 07 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 07 $2 $0 +2%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 60-65% of the vote in the South Korea election? Jun 08 $2 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in April? May 06 $1 $0 +2%
Chicago State vs. Mercyhurst Mar 20 $12 +$3 +27%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 55-56°F on February 27? Feb 26 $12 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 57-58°F on February 25? Feb 25 $17 −$4 -26%
Hornets vs. Warriors Feb 24 $17 $0 +0%
Will Dwight Howard make the 2025 Class of the Naismith Basketball Hall Feb 24 $3 $0 -11%
Will Ron Paul be a member of the Trump administration? Feb 23 $17 $0 +1%
Brentford wins the Premier League? Feb 20 $11 $0 +0%
Will PSV Eindhoven win the UEFA Champions League? Feb 20 $38 $0 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Feb 20 $26 $0 +0%
Will Stade Brestois win the UEFA Champions League? Feb 20 $50 $0 +0%
Will the Bills win Super Bowl 2025? Feb 05 $1 $0 +1%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Jan 12 $5 +$2 +48%
Magic vs. Pistons Jan 02 $15 −$15 -100%
Jazz vs. Knicks Jan 02 $36 +$2 +6%
Knicks vs. Wizards Jan 01 $9 +$2 +20%
Clippers vs. Spurs Jan 01 $21 −$21 -100%
Raptors vs. Celtics Jan 01 $63 +$3 +5%
Clippers vs. Pelicans Dec 31 $18 +$7 +39%
Mavericks vs. Kings Dec 31 $19 +$12 +67%
Jazz vs. Nets Dec 23 $3 +$9 +245%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 72% +$12
sports 15% −$5
other 10% $0
weather 1% −$4
politics 1% $0
finance 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $45 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $37 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $37 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 74¢ $46 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 75¢ $46 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 45¢ $16 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 45¢ $2 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 42¢ $4 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 42¢ $13 3d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $41 3d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $41 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $46 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $46 6d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 22¢ $3 7d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 22¢ $17 7d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $20 7d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $45 7d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 98¢ $45 7d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $3 7d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $15 7d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $20 7d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 31¢ $37 7d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 49¢ $14 7d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 49¢ $31 7d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 49¢ $45 7d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $22 7d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $22 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $23 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $23 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 55¢ $45 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +1.1% -8.5% 20% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 22 +1.1% -8.5% 55% 5% -8.9%
≤90d 25 +1.5% -8.1% 60% 8% -8.9%
all 52 +1.3% -8.3% 63% 15% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 15% -9.4%
10% -17.1% 10% -18.1%
15% -25.1% 8% -26.0%
20% -32.5% 4% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.02 · official $45.02 (match) · 169 history records