Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:37:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
A4 0xa4d8…6e6b crypto 1119 markets active 1h ago coverage 83d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$949 (+1%) realized +$949 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate94%1057W / 62L
Drawdown56%max
Avg bet$90per market
Trades / day13.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$106now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$106
7 days−$385
14 days−$83
30 days−$284
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$539
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 99 -2.2% -11.5% 92% 9% -13.0%
≤30d 418 +1.3% -8.4% 93% 16% -10.1%
≤90d 1119 +2.5% -7.3% 94% 14% -9.0%
all 1119 +2.5% -7.3% 94% 14% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.3% 14% -9.0%
10% -16.1% 8% -17.7%
15% -24.2% 4% -25.7%
20% -31.7% 2% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
84% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$86 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

83d coverage
Net worth$106
Realized+$949
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses1057 / 62
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1119 / 1119
History coverage83d
Avg bet$90
Trades / day13.8
Drawdown56%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1119 Trades
no open positions (13 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $100 +$2 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $100 +$2 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $100 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $100 +$2 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 16 $100 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 16 $100 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 16 $100 +$2 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $100 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $101 +$10 +10%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 16 $101 +$10 +10%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $100 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $101 +$17 +17%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $100 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $100 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $101 +$23 +23%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $100 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $91 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $201 −$97 -48%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $100 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $30 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $100 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $100 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $100 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $100 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $100 +$2 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $100 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $100 +$2 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $100 +$2 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $100 +$1 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $101 +$10 +10%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $101 +$8 +8%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $100 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $100 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $100 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $205 −$90 -44%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 14 $101 +$13 +13%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $100 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $100 +$1 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $100 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $100 +$2 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 14 $101 +$14 +14%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 14 $100 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 14 $100 +$2 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 14 $100 +$3 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 14 $100 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $201 −$96 -48%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 13 $101 +$25 +25%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 13 $205 −$43 -21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $100 37m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $100 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $100 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 6h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 7h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $100 7h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 9h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $101 11h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $101 12h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 14h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $101 16h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 17h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 17h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $101 18h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 19h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $91 21h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $100 23h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $101 23h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 25h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $30 26h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 29h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $102 30h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 32h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 35h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 38h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $100 41h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 43h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $100 44h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $100 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $106.38 · official $106.38 (match) · 2251 history records