Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T22:34:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A4 0xa4d8…7520 other 342 markets active 1h ago coverage 108d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$377 (-7%) realized −$378 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate55%181W / 147L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$9
14 days−$10
30 days−$86
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% −$136
sports 42% −$265
world 2% +$14
culture 1% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-21.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -9.9% -18.5% 56% 56% -12.0%
≤30d 42 -20.2% -27.8% 50% 50% -18.3%
≤90d 186 -18.0% -25.8% 53% 49% -19.3%
all 328 -12.9% -21.2% 55% 51% -15.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.2% 51% -15.6%
10% -28.8% 44% -23.7%
15% -35.6% 32% -31.1%
20% -42.0% 21% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$12 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

108d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized−$378
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses181 / 147
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions2
Markets (closed)328 / 342
History coverage108d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 328 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? No 61¢ 100¢ $25 $41 +$16 (+63%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? Yes 27¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 36 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance Jun 29 $19 −$18 -98%
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $9 +$9 +101%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 AND Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 0 Jun 25 $22 +$4 +18%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $25 +$12 +48%
Morocco vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $29 −$29 -98%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $9 +$5 +55%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $6 +$3 +50%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $34 +$22 +65%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5 AND Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 23 $5 +$2 +49%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $60 +$33 +55%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $20 −$20 -98%
Jordan leading at halftime? Jun 23 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $8 −$4 -48%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $51 +$25 +50%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $37 +$36 +97%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 +$4 +85%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 21 $37 +$11 +29%
Tunisia vs. Japan: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $1 −$1 -98%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $5 +$5 +92%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $19 +$9 +48%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $16 +$19 +114%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 AND Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 6.5 Jun 18 $20 +$22 +106%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $33 −$33 -99%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $41 −$40 -99%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $30 +$8 +26%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $15 −$12 -82%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $53 +$7 +13%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $44 +$10 +23%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $20 +$7 +34%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $37 −$37 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Poland win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Mirassol FC win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $24 +$6 +24%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $25 −$25 -99%
Bordeaux: Arthur Rinderknech vs Martin Damm May 15 $4 −$4 -99%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Andrey Rublev May 14 $4 $0 +0%
Oeiras 4: Tomas Barrios vs Emilio Nava May 14 $10 −$10 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. Milwaukee Brewers May 14 $25 −$25 -99%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Texas Rangers May 14 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Ghazl El Mahalla SC win on 2026-05-12? May 14 $25 +$13 +50%
Will Haras El Hodood SC win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $20 +$6 +29%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 27¢ $15 57m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 61¢ $25 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Japan 27¢ $19 18h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06- BUY 48¢ $26 4d
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 AND Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 0 BUY 84¢ $22 4d
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 1.5 AND South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1 BUY 48¢ $15 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 67¢ $25 4d
Morocco vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY No 57¢ $25 5d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 23¢ $19 5d
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score BUY No 56¢ $25 5d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 61¢ $10 5d
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 49¢ $9 5d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $9 5d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $6 5d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 60¢ $34 6d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 AND Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY 58¢ $5 6d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5 AND Portugal leading at halftime? BUY 66¢ $5 6d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? A BUY 50¢ $5 6d
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 64¢ $60 6d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $20 6d
Jordan leading at halftime? BUY No 21¢ $4 6d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 36¢ $4 6d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $8 6d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 66¢ $51 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 43¢ $10 7d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 50¢ $37 7d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY 50¢ $5 8d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY 65¢ $5 8d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 AND Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY 52¢ $5 8d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21 BUY 39¢ $5 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.81 · official $40.81 (match) · 692 history records