Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:29:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
A4 0xa4d6…9357 sports 310 markets active 0h ago coverage 405d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,431 (-3%) realized −$3,432 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate67%208W / 101L
Whale WR77%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$372per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$289est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$60now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$27
7 days+$27
14 days+$27
30 days−$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 43% −$1,108
world 22% −$239
other 19% +$523
weather 11% −$1,308
politics 4% −$1,601
crypto 1% −$21
finance 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +27.4% +15.2% 67% 33% +6.9%
≤30d 5 -20.5% -28.1% 40% 20% -16.7%
≤90d 163 -1.7% -11.1% 71% 44% -14.4%
all 309 -0.6% -10.0% 67% 42% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 42% -12.5%
10% -18.7% 25% -20.9%
15% -26.5% 14% -28.5%
20% -33.7% 7% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 77% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$67 vs −$176 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

405d coverage
Net worth$60
Realized−$3,432
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses208 / 101
Whale WR (big bets)77%
Est. fees paid−$289
Open positions1
Markets (closed)309 / 310
History coverage405d
Avg bet$372
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 309 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Boston Red Sox 54¢ 55¢ $59 $60 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ITF Irvine: Alexander Guajardo vs Karl Kazuma Lee Jun 17 $60 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $58 +$2 +3%
ITF Irvine: Kaylan Bigun vs Vignesh Gogineni Jun 17 $32 +$26 +79%
Tyler: Blaise Bicknell vs Johannus Monday Jun 01 $7 −$7 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 01 $43 −$37 -85%
Valorant: 9z Team vs Leviatán Academy (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: May 18 $11 −$10 -90%
Geneva Open: Lorenzo Sonego vs Edas Butvilas May 18 $23 −$12 -53%
Geneva Open: Valentin Royer vs Francisco Comesana May 18 $14 −$1 -7%
Hamburg European Open: Marcos Giron vs Ben Shelton May 18 $21 +$2 +8%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Alexandra Eala vs Oleksandra Oliynykova May 18 $14 +$6 +46%
Bengaluru 3: Maximus Jones vs Sasikumar Mukund May 18 $15 −$1 -4%
Hamburg European Open: Francisco Cerundolo vs Alex de Minaur May 18 $13 +$2 +17%
Hamburg European Open: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Corentin Moutet May 18 $11 +$3 +29%
Geneva Open: Arthur Rinderknech vs Thiago Agustin Tirante May 18 $12 −$2 -13%
GP SAR La Princesse Lalla Meryem: Jil Teichmann vs Julia Grabher May 18 $25 −$13 -53%
Abidjan 2: Michael Geerts vs Niels Visker May 18 $9 −$7 -79%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Noemi Basiletti vs Daria S May 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET May 18 $103 −$103 -100%
Jiujiang: Haruka Kaji vs Xinyu Gao May 18 $270 −$270 -100%
Gwangju: Clement Chidekh vs Coleman Wong May 18 $300 −$300 -100%
Madrid Open, Qualification: Donna Vekic vs Leolia Jeanjean May 18 $2,286 −$2,286 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET May 18 $80 +$5 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET May 18 $66 +$19 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET May 18 $56 +$9 +16%
Will Nashville SC win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $144 +$43 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET May 18 $130 −$29 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET May 18 $77 +$32 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET May 18 $106 +$20 +18%
AHL: Coachella Valley Firebirds vs. Colorado Eagles May 18 $241 −$146 -60%
Valorant: MIBR vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Playoffs May 18 $237 +$5 +2%
Chicago Sky vs. Minnesota Lynx May 18 $681 −$445 -65%
Seattle Storm vs. Indiana Fever May 17 $664 +$18 +3%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies May 17 $383 +$279 +73%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Los Angeles Angels May 17 $222 +$161 +73%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Natus Vincere (BO5) - IEM Atlanta Playo May 17 $217 +$6 +3%
ITF Maringa: Mateus Alves vs Luis Felipe Miguel May 17 $238 −$21 -9%
Counter-Strike: Brute vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualifi May 17 $196 +$42 +21%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Movistar KOI (BO5) - Esports World Cup EMEA Quali May 17 $138 +$58 +42%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs REKONIX (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B May 17 $116 +$22 +19%
Hamburg European Open, Qualification: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Arthur G May 17 $73 +$43 +59%
Geneva Open: Marco Trungelliti vs Mariano Navone May 17 $214 −$142 -66%
Will Como 1907 win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $204 +$10 +5%
Internationaux de Strasbourg, Qualification: Anastasia Zakharova vs Da May 17 $175 +$30 +17%
Geneva Open, Qualification: James Duckworth vs Edas Butvilas May 17 $154 +$20 +13%
Internationaux de Strasbourg, Qualification: McCartney Kessler vs Oksa May 17 $135 +$19 +14%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Chiara Fornasieri vs Marie Mettraux May 17 $126 +$9 +7%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Cleveland Guardians May 17 $56 +$31 +56%
UFC Fight Night: Arnold Allen vs. Melquizael Costa (Featherweight, Mai May 17 $45 +$39 +86%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Play May 16 $56 $0 -1%
Counter-Strike: BESTIA Academy vs Vasco Esports (BO3) - BetBoom Storm May 16 $44 +$12 +27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 54¢ $60 16m
ITF Irvine: Alexander Guajardo vs Karl Kazuma Lee SELL Karl Kazuma Lee 98¢ $60 17m
ITF Irvine: Alexander Guajardo vs Karl Kazuma Lee BUY Karl Kazuma Lee 98¢ $60 51m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 100¢ $60 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 97¢ $58 2h
ITF Irvine: Kaylan Bigun vs Vignesh Gogineni SELL Vignesh Gogineni 100¢ $58 2h
ITF Irvine: Kaylan Bigun vs Vignesh Gogineni BUY Vignesh Gogineni 55¢ $32 3h
Tyler: Blaise Bicknell vs Johannus Monday BUY Johannus Monday 65¢ $7 16d
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi SELL Frances Tiafoe 14¢ $6 16d
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi BUY Frances Tiafoe 91¢ $42 16d
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi SELL Matteo Arnaldi 17¢ $0 16d
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi BUY Matteo Arnaldi 56¢ $1 16d
Valorant: 9z Team vs Leviatán Academy (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: SELL Leviatán Academy 6¢ $1 30d
Valorant: 9z Team vs Leviatán Academy (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: BUY Leviatán Academy 56¢ $11 30d
Geneva Open: Lorenzo Sonego vs Edas Butvilas SELL Lorenzo Sonego 28¢ $11 30d
Geneva Open: Lorenzo Sonego vs Edas Butvilas BUY Lorenzo Sonego 58¢ $23 30d
Hamburg European Open: Marcos Giron vs Ben Shelton SELL Ben Shelton 99¢ $23 30d
Hamburg European Open: Marcos Giron vs Ben Shelton BUY Ben Shelton 91¢ $21 30d
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Alexandra Eala vs Oleksandra Oliynykova SELL Oleksandra Oliynykova 100¢ $21 30d
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Alexandra Eala vs Oleksandra Oliynykova BUY Oleksandra Oliynykova 68¢ $14 30d
Bengaluru 3: Maximus Jones vs Sasikumar Mukund SELL Maximus Jones 71¢ $14 30d
Bengaluru 3: Maximus Jones vs Sasikumar Mukund BUY Maximus Jones 73¢ $15 30d
Hamburg European Open: Francisco Cerundolo vs Alex de Minaur SELL Alex de Minaur 100¢ $15 30d
Hamburg European Open: Francisco Cerundolo vs Alex de Minaur BUY Alex de Minaur 85¢ $13 30d
Geneva Open: Valentin Royer vs Francisco Comesana SELL Francisco Comesana 60¢ $13 30d
Geneva Open: Valentin Royer vs Francisco Comesana BUY Francisco Comesana 63¢ $14 30d
Hamburg European Open: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Corentin Moutet SELL Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 100¢ $14 30d
Hamburg European Open: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Corentin Moutet BUY Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 77¢ $11 30d
Geneva Open: Arthur Rinderknech vs Thiago Agustin Tirante SELL Thiago Agustin Tirante 50¢ $11 30d
Geneva Open: Arthur Rinderknech vs Thiago Agustin Tirante BUY Thiago Agustin Tirante 56¢ $12 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $59.78 · official $59.78 (match) · 1078 history records