Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T04:57:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
A4 0xa4d3…0a4e crypto 1017 markets active 0h ago coverage 47d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 46d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$140 (-4%) realized −$136 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -49% what you keep after slip
Net edge-49%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate34%348W / 667L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day49.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$48
14 days−$125
30 days−$171
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$253
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-40.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 101 -35.2% -41.4% 39% 36% -15.8%
≤30d 430 -34.2% -40.5% 35% 30% -17.8%
≤90d 1015 -33.8% -40.1% 34% 31% -16.0%
all 1015 -33.8% -40.1% 34% 31% -16.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover49.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -40.1% 31% -16.0%
10% ← realistic here -45.8% 28% -24.1%
15% -51.0% 24% -31.4%
20% -55.8% 18% -38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -34% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -29% → late -38% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.58 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

47d coverage
Net worth$12
Realized−$136
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses348 / 667
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1015 / 1017
History coverage47d ⚠
Avg bet$3
Trades / day49.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1015 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Up 19¢ 15¢ $15 $12 −$3 (-22%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? No 1¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-61%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 58 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$2 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 16 $20 +$4 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $9 −$3 -31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +49%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 -11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$3 -52%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$9 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3AM ET Jun 13 $13 −$12 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3AM ET Jun 13 $17 −$16 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$2 -35%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +32%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$1 -19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 13 $6 −$3 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$9 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 13 $6 +$2 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$1 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +27%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $7 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $7 −$7 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$5 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$4 +84%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 12 $20 +$11 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 12 $17 +$4 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +39%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 12 $7 +$1 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $5 19m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $5 19m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $5 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $2 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $2 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $2 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $2 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $5 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $5 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $5 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $5 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $5 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $1 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $2 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.08 · official $12.08 (match) · 3500 history records