Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T15:29:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A4
0xa4d3…4b1f
sports · 368 markets active 0h ago
4.5score
+$5,162 +11%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$5,292 · open −$130
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,948
Realized+$5,292
Unrealized−$130
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses170 / 192
Whale WR (big bets)55%
Est. fees paid−$589
Open positions6
Markets (closed)362 / 368
History coverage56d
Avg bet$129
Trades / day9.2
Drawdown64%
Kalshi-fit85%
Chart Positions 6 History 362 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$914
7 days−$1,288
14 days+$419
30 days−$521
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Atlanta Braves 52¢ 44¢ $1,000 $847 −$154 (-15%)
Toronto Argonauts vs. Montreal Alouettes: O/U 51.5 Under 47¢ 48¢ $739 $763 +$24 (+3%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? No 20¢ 20¢ $125 $122 −$3 (-2%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Over 47¢ 50¢ $101 $109 +$8 (+7%)
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Bilibili Gaming 66¢ 65¢ $66 $65 −$1 (-2%)
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Over 8¢ 8¢ $46 $44 −$3 (-6%)
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Under 41¢ 0¢ $48 $0 −$48 (-100%)
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20? No 41¢ 0¢ $1,052 $0 −$1,052 (-100%)
Call of Duty: Miami Heretics vs Vancouver Surge - Game 2 Winner Miami Heretics 57¢ 0¢ $267 $0 −$267 (-100%)
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? No 54¢ 0¢ $285 $0 −$285 (-100%)
Will Santos FC win on 2026-05-26? No 30¢ 0¢ $74 $0 −$74 (-100%)
Stephon Castle: Assists O/U 7.5 Yes 43¢ 0¢ $43 $0 −$43 (-100%)
Map Handicap: FAL (-2.5) vs Legacy (+2.5) Team Falcons 29¢ 0¢ $116 $0 −$116 (-100%)
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-05-31? No 42¢ 0¢ $160 $0 −$160 (-100%)
Stephon Castle: Points O/U 18.5 Yes 45¢ 0¢ $51 $0 −$51 (-100%)
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner T1 49¢ 0¢ $601 $0 −$601 (-100%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-01? No 34¢ 0¢ $371 $0 −$371 (-100%)
Alex Michelsen vs. Learner Tien: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 55¢ 0¢ $365 $0 −$365 (-100%)
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 213.5 Under 31¢ 0¢ $31 $0 −$31 (-100%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-08? No 15¢ 0¢ $38 $0 −$38 (-100%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-02? No 10¢ 0¢ $43 $0 −$43 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Natus Vincere 36¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will US Lecce win on 2026-05-24? No 49¢ 0¢ $148 $0 −$148 (-100%)
Game Handicap: TSW (-2.5) vs Deep Cross Gaming (+2.5) Team Secret Whales 32¢ 0¢ $210 $0 −$210 (-100%)
Morocco vs. Burundi: O/U 2.5 Under 40¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Total Kills Over/Under 28.5 in Game 2? Jun 12 $29 +$41 +143%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 11 $610 −$601 -98%
1st 5 Innings Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5) Jun 11 $104 +$46 +44%
1st 5 Innings Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) Jun 11 $102 +$51 +50%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 11 $102 +$88 +86%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: ONIC vs Bigetron by Vitality - Game 4 Winner Jun 11 $102 +$68 +67%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $55 −$1 -2%
Game Handicap: TLID (-1.5) vs Geek Fam ID (+1.5) Jun 11 $103 −$101 -98%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $847 +$758 +90%
Connecticut Sun vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 166.5 Jun 10 $1,284 −$1,264 -98%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5 Jun 09 $1,074 −$1,058 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $52 −$51 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $38 −$38 -98%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 07 $89 −$87 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $66 −$65 -98%
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - LCP Playoffs Jun 06 $61 −$60 -98%
Map Handicap: 100T (-1.5) vs ex-RUBY (+1.5) Jun 06 $266 +$480 +180%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Team Yandex vs Verso Time (BO5) - MLBB Conti Jun 06 $73 −$71 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $47 −$46 -97%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $148 +$84 +57%
Call of Duty: Riyadh Falcons vs Carolina Royal Ravens - Game 3 Winner Jun 05 $320 +$224 +70%
Call of Duty: Miami Heretics vs Vancouver Surge - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $271 −$267 -99%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $148 +$84 +57%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $341 +$496 +145%
Game Handicap: HRTS (-2.5) vs UCAM Esports Club (+2.5) Jun 05 $103 −$101 -98%
LoL: Barça eSports vs ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix (BO3) - LES Playoffs Jun 05 $230 −$225 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $269 +$864 +321%
Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 16.5 Jun 04 $518 +$502 +97%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $155 +$419 +270%
Will Italy win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $389 −$381 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $44 −$43 -97%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $378 −$371 -98%
Will CD Palestino win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $445 +$425 +96%
CD Palestino vs. Audax CS Italiano: O/U 4.5 May 31 $40 −$39 -98%
Will Córdoba CF win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $28 +$37 +128%
Call of Duty: OpTic Texas vs Miami Heretics - Game 2 Winner May 31 $186 +$153 +82%
Córdoba CF vs. SD Huesca: O/U 2.5 May 31 $192 +$257 +134%
Counter-Strike: Fluxo vs Galorys (BO3) - Circuit X Base Recife Playoff May 31 $215 +$423 +197%
Real Racing Club vs. Cádiz CF: O/U 3.5 May 31 $210 −$207 -99%
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $162 −$160 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $228 +$141 +62%
Game Handicap: TSW (-2.5) vs Deep Cross Gaming (+2.5) May 30 $215 −$210 -98%
Ecuador vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 May 30 $99 −$97 -98%
Scotland vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 May 30 $34 +$116 +344%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 May 30 $183 −$180 -98%
Vissel Kōbe vs. Kashima Antlers: O/U 3.5 May 30 $120 +$437 +365%
EC Juventude vs. América FC: O/U 3.5 May 29 $55 −$53 -98%
Will CA Boca Juniors win on 2026-05-28? May 29 $320 +$553 +172%
Will Nice win on 2026-05-29? May 29 $277 −$272 -98%
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) May 29 $507 −$500 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 79% +$5,720
other 20% −$977
crypto 0% +$419
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 8¢ $48 26m
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 20¢ $128 1h
Toronto Argonauts vs. Montreal Alouettes: O/U 51.5 BUY Under 47¢ $751 1h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 66¢ $67 3h
Total Kills Over/Under 28.5 in Game 2? SELL Under 99¢ $69 3h
Total Kills Over/Under 28.5 in Game 2? BUY Under 40¢ $29 17h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 49¢ $102 17h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 49¢ $508 17h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Atlanta Braves 52¢ $1,015 17h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $103 18h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Natus Vincere 36¢ $52 23h
1st 5 Innings Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) BUY Miami Marlins 66¢ $102 23h
1st 5 Innings Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5) BUY New York Mets 69¢ $104 23h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Natus Vincere 36¢ $55 36h
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Under 53¢ $102 37h
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: ONIC vs Bigetron by Vitality - Game 4 Winner BUY ONIC 59¢ $102 37h
Game Handicap: TLID (-1.5) vs Geek Fam ID (+1.5) BUY Team Liquid ID 42¢ $103 37h
Connecticut Sun vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 166.5 BUY Under 47¢ $1,284 42h
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 52¢ $847 2d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 47¢ $1,074 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-09? BUY No 17¢ $52 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-08? BUY No 15¢ $38 3d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Anyones Legend 23¢ $89 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-06? BUY No 25¢ $66 5d
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - LCP Playoffs BUY Deep Cross Gaming 22¢ $61 5d
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Team Yandex vs Verso Time (BO5) - MLBB Conti BUY Team Yandex 28¢ $73 6d
Map Handicap: 100T (-1.5) vs ex-RUBY (+1.5) BUY 100 Thieves 35¢ $266 6d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-05? BUY No 13¢ $13 6d
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 2 Winner SELL Team Heretics Academy 100¢ $233 6d
Call of Duty: Riyadh Falcons vs Carolina Royal Ravens - Game 3 Winner SELL Riyadh Falcons 100¢ $544 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-7.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -12.9% -21.2% 46% 46% -28.3%
≤30d 163 -16.9% -24.8% 36% 36% -11.4%
≤90d 362 +2.8% -7.0% 47% 47% +1.1%
all 362 +2.8% -7.0% 47% 47% +1.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover9.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.0% 47% +1.1%
10% -15.9% 47% -8.6%
15% -24.0% 46% -17.4%
20% -31.4% 45% -25.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,948.20 · official $1,948.20 (match) · 763 history records