Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:12:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
A4 0xa4d2…2657 sports 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$12 (-7%) realized −$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate80%4W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 44% +$9
other 41% +$6
crypto 15% −$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-20.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -11.6% -20.1% 80% 40% -14.1%
≤30d 5 -11.6% -20.1% 80% 40% -14.1%
≤90d 5 -11.6% -20.1% 80% 40% -14.1%
all 5 -11.6% -20.1% 80% 40% -14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.1% 40% -14.1%
10% -27.7% 0% -22.3%
15% -34.7% 0% -29.8%
20% -41.1% 0% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 69% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$23 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses4 / 1
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)5 / 5
History coverage6d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 5 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tunisia vs. Japan: Tunisia O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $38 +$4 +10%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $33 +$5 +16%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $44 +$5 +12%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $23 −$23 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $22 +$1 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tunisia vs. Japan: Tunisia O/U 0.5 BUY Under 91¢ $38 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 86¢ $33 13h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $44 44h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 78¢ $23 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $23 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 96¢ $22 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 9 history records