Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T19:52:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A4
0xa4d1…1ec3
sports · 52 markets active 0h ago
2.5score
+$17 +4%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$34 · open −$17
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$112
Realized+$34
Unrealized−$17
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses23 / 13
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions16
Markets (closed)36 / 52
History coverage2d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day79.7
Drawdown67%
Kalshi-fit98%
Chart Positions 16 History 36 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$34
7 days+$34
14 days+$34
30 days+$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 83¢ 94¢ $25 $28 +$3 (+14%)
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs K27 53¢ 50¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-5%)
Map Handicap: SPARTA (-1.5) vs Leo Team (+1.5) Leo Team 69¢ 68¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Spirit 79¢ 94¢ $8 $10 +$2 (+20%)
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stage Leo Team 45¢ 48¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+9%)
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Spirit 66¢ 74¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+11%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Under 51¢ 52¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Spirit 88¢ 92¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Map Handicap: WAL (-1.5) vs K27 (+1.5) K27 76¢ 72¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-5%)
Map Handicap: HOTU (-1.5) vs KOLESIE (+1.5) KOLESIE 65¢ 66¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki - Map 1 Winner K27 48¢ 62¢ $3 $3 +$1 (+29%)
Counter-Strike: Marsborne vs Festina Lente (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playoffs Festina Lente 19¢ 19¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs 9z (+3.5) Spirit 59¢ 50¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-16%)
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs KOLESIE (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs KOLESIE 40¢ 34¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-14%)
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 PARIVISION 41¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Map Handicap: LGC (-1.5) vs PARIVISION (+1.5) PARIVISION 68¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 13 $4 +$7 +174%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: FURIA (-3.5) vs BetBoom Team (+3.5) Jun 13 $6 +$10 +156%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $12 +$9 +74%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $23 −$23 -100%
Counter-Strike: The Last Resort vs Dripmen (BO5) - UKIC Masters Divisi Jun 13 $17 +$4 +21%
Map Handicap: KOL (-1.5) vs Bebop (+1.5) Jun 13 $25 +$12 +50%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) Jun 13 $3 +$2 +82%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Falcons (-3.5) vs Monte (+3.5) Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: G2 (-3.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+3.5) Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $13 +$3 +23%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Falcons (-3.5) vs Monte (+3.5) Jun 13 $5 +$5 +99%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $3 +$2 +89%
Counter-Strike: Oxuji Esports vs Misa Esports (BO3) - European Pro Lea Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Counter-Strike: RUSTEC vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Jun 13 $12 +$9 +77%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Counter-Strike: Oxuji Esports vs Misa Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: RUSTEC vs HEROIC Academy - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $6 +$5 +79%
Map Handicap: HERO.A (-1.5) vs RUSTEC (+1.5) Jun 13 $4 +$1 +23%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Natus Vincere (-3.5) vs TheMongolz (+3.5) Jun 13 $3 +$2 +76%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $2 +$3 +124%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs TheMongolz (+1.5) Jun 13 $13 +$8 +65%
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) Jun 13 $9 +$7 +79%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $3 +$8 +220%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Academy vs Washed (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group Jun 13 $19 +$1 +6%
Counter-Strike: F5 Esports vs Wanted Goons (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playo Jun 13 $28 +$4 +14%
Counter-Strike: Club 333 vs Iowa Stormboar (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playo Jun 13 $14 −$14 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: OLDBOYS- vs Donstu Esports (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europ Jun 12 $3 +$2 +79%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Academy vs STATE (BO1) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group A Jun 12 $4 +$1 +19%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $3 +$3 +105%
Counter-Strike: MARKandLARRY vs Abyssal (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 G Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 12 $4 +$2 +49%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 94% +$14
other 6% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) SELL FURIA 100¢ $11 2m
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: FURIA (-3.5) vs BetBoom Team (+3.5) SELL FURIA 100¢ $16 2m
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner SELL FURIA 100¢ $21 2m
Map Handicap: HOTU (-1.5) vs KOLESIE (+1.5) BUY KOLESIE 65¢ $3 8m
Counter-Strike: Marsborne vs Festina Lente (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playo BUY Festina Lente 20¢ $1 38m
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs KOLESIE (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs BUY KOLESIE 40¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: Marsborne vs Festina Lente (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playo BUY Festina Lente 19¢ $1 1h
Map Handicap: WAL (-1.5) vs K27 (+1.5) BUY K27 76¢ $4 1h
Counter-Strike: The Last Resort vs Dripmen (BO5) - UKIC Masters Divisi SELL The Last Resort 100¢ $21 1h
Map Handicap: KOL (-1.5) vs Bebop (+1.5) SELL Bebop 99¢ $37 1h
Map Handicap: SPARTA (-1.5) vs Leo Team (+1.5) BUY Leo Team 69¢ $4 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 83¢ $4 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 83¢ $21 2h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY Leo Team 45¢ $3 2h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $3 2h
Map Handicap: SPARTA (-1.5) vs Leo Team (+1.5) BUY Leo Team 69¢ $4 2h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY Leo Team 45¢ $3 2h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $3 2h
Map Handicap: SPARTA (-1.5) vs Leo Team (+1.5) BUY Leo Team 69¢ $4 2h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY Leo Team 44¢ $3 2h
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) SELL MOUZ 100¢ $5 2h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs BUY K27 49¢ $3 3h
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) BUY FURIA 35¢ $2 3h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $16 4h
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) BUY FURIA 35¢ $2 4h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs BUY K27 55¢ $3 4h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs BUY K27 55¢ $3 4h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs BUY K27 55¢ $3 4h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs BUY K27 55¢ $3 4h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs BUY K27 55¢ $3 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)+2.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 +13.4% +2.6% 64% 61% +1.5%
≤30d 36 +13.4% +2.6% 64% 61% +1.5%
≤90d 36 +13.4% +2.6% 64% 61% +1.5%
all 36 +13.4% +2.6% 64% 61% +1.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover79.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +2.6% 61% +1.5%
10% ← realistic here -7.2% 53% -8.2%
15% -16.2% 47% -17.1%
20% -24.4% 42% -25.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $112.34 · official $112.34 (match) · 180 history records