Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T04:55:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A4
0xa4cf…3e8c
crypto · 196 markets active 2h ago
4.5score
+$489 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,014 · open +$901
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$8,651
Realized−$1,014
Unrealized+$901
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses98 / 88
Whale WR (big bets)74%
Est. fees paid−$614
Open positions7
Markets (closed)186 / 196
History coverage140d
Avg bet$702
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%
Chart Positions 7 History 186 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$235
7 days+$3,447
14 days+$4,605
30 days+$3,634
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $3,000 $4,269 +$1,269 (+42%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1,500 $1,513 +$13 (+1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $1,000 $997 −$3 (-0%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1,050 $885 −$165 (-16%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $500 $464 −$36 (-7%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $500 $443 −$57 (-11%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Yes 57¢ 22¢ $200 $79 −$121 (-61%)
Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5) Arsenal FC 53¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Will Trump say "BLM" or "Black Lives Matter" during the Black History Month reception? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Up 44¢ 0¢ $98 $0 −$98 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Down 10¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Down 55¢ 0¢ $29 $0 −$29 (-100%)
Qatar Open: Valentin Royer vs Pierre-Hugues Herbert Herbert 34¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Down 99¢ 0¢ $1,000 $0 −$1,000 (-100%)
Qatar Open: Arthur Fils vs Jakub Mensik Mensik 60¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Up 28¢ 0¢ $99 $0 −$99 (-100%)
Qatar Open: Jakub Mensik vs Jan Choinski Choinski 55¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Hamburg European Open, Qualification: Marcos Giron vs Max Schoenhaus Marcos Giron 67¢ 0¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Spread: Como 1907 (-1.5) Como 1907 41¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-02-26? Yes 61¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Delray Beach Open: Tommy Paul vs Learner Tien Tien 68¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Up 72¢ 0¢ $756 $0 −$756 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Up 11¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
FK Crvena zvezda vs. Lille OSC: O/U 2.5 Over 51¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Down 13¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $102 +$155 +152%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 12 $202 +$80 +40%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $514 +$3,213 +625%
Will Felix Auger Aliassime win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 01 $206 +$1,267 +615%
Will Alejandro Tabilo win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 01 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 31 $308 −$8 -3%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $810 −$158 -20%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-2.5) May 30 $87 −$85 -97%
Will Learner Tien win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 30 $103 +$136 +132%
Will Matteo Berrettini win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 30 $206 −$200 -97%
Will Francisco Cerundolo win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 30 $206 −$200 -97%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $515 −$62 -12%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 23 $1,013 −$1,000 -99%
FC Machida Zelvia vs. Urawa Red Diamonds: O/U 1.5 May 22 $202 −$200 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET May 22 $104 +$168 +161%
English Premier League: Bruno Fernandes breaks assists record? May 22 $507 −$182 -36%
SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 1.5 May 21 $3,023 +$1,031 +34%
Spread: Como 1907 (-1.5) May 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Hamburg European Open, Qualification: Marcos Giron vs Max Schoenhaus May 17 $202 −$200 -99%
Geneva Open, Qualification: James Duckworth vs Edas Butvilas May 17 $103 −$100 -98%
Will Aston Villa finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standings? May 17 $509 +$181 +36%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 13 $18,764 −$898 -5%
Spread: Liverpool FC (-1.5) May 09 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $509 +$741 +146%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 12 $7,981 −$648 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Mar 02 $1,024 −$1,022 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-03-01? Mar 01 $100 +$56 +56%
Spread: Manchester United FC (-2.5) Mar 01 $100 −$100 -100%
Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5) Mar 01 $200 +$99 +49%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 2? Feb 28 $100 −$100 -100%
Leeds United FC vs. Manchester City FC: Both Teams to Score Feb 28 $100 −$100 -100%
Dubai Tennis Championships: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Daniil Medvedev Feb 27 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Feb 27 $100 −$58 -58%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-02-26? Feb 26 $100 −$100 -100%
FK Crvena zvezda vs. Lille OSC: O/U 2.5 Feb 26 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Feb 26 $100 −$99 -99%
Dubai Tennis Championships: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Jiri Lehecka Feb 26 $3,025 +$33 +1%
Mexican Open: Yibing Wu vs Sho Shimabukuro Feb 26 $1,405 +$190 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Feb 26 $1,275 +$129 +10%
Real Madrid CF vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: O/U 2.5 Feb 26 $100 +$64 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Feb 25 $100 −$16 -16%
Spread: Real Madrid CF (-1.5) Feb 25 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Feb 23 $100 −$99 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Feb 23 $1,426 +$4 +0%
Will Canada win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Oly Feb 22 $300 −$300 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Feb 22 $1,412 +$114 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Feb 22 $1,384 +$28 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Feb 22 $100 +$17 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Feb 22 $100 +$17 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Feb 22 $100 +$31 +31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 58% −$3,785
sports 31% −$2,817
other 10% +$6,539
politics 0% +$50
world 0% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $203 1h
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY 26¢ $204 4h
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 39¢ $102 26h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AN BUY 24¢ $102 26h
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron BUY Ben Shelton 71¢ $202 2d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $515 2d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY 43¢ $102 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $1,025 3d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $514 4d
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL Yes 74¢ $1,095 6d
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL Yes 80¢ $1,192 6d
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL Yes 55¢ $444 11d
Will Felix Auger Aliassime win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL Yes 7¢ $444 12d
Will Alejandro Tabilo win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes 3¢ $103 12d
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL Yes 41¢ $996 13d
Will Felix Auger Aliassime win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL Yes 7¢ $1,029 13d
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL Yes 9¢ $300 13d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 48¢ $652 14d
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-2.5) BUY Paris Saint-Germain FC 8¢ $87 14d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 58¢ $810 15d
Will Learner Tien win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL Yes 2¢ $239 15d
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes 8¢ $308 15d
Will Matteo Berrettini win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes 3¢ $206 15d
Will Francisco Cerundolo win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes 6¢ $206 15d
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes 8¢ $514 17d
Will Learner Tien win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes 1¢ $103 17d
Will Felix Auger Aliassime win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes 1¢ $206 17d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $515 17d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $257 17d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $453 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +272.2% +236.8% 100% 100% +372.0%
≤30d 21 +39.3% +26.0% 38% 38% +26.7%
≤90d 25 +34.3% +21.5% 36% 36% -2.7%
all 186 -4.2% -13.4% 53% 40% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.4% 40% -10.2%
10% -21.6% 32% -18.8%
15% -29.2% 27% -26.6%
20% -36.2% 22% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8,650.67 · official $8,650.67 (match) · 434 history records