Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T02:36:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A4
0xa4cf…29b5
crypto · 1631 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$234 -4%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$234 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$234
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses908 / 820
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1728 / 1631
History coverage66d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day52.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 0 History 1728 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$174
7 days−$155
14 days−$194
30 days−$127
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Down 53¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Up 60¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Down 57¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Down 66¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - March 20, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Up 32¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Up 49¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - March 19, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Up 45¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Down 73¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - March 20, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Down 13¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Down 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Up 53¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Up 49¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Down 48¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - March 19, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Down 45¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Up 53¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Up 54¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Down 65¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Down 69¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Up 73¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 20, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 19, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 20, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 19, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 22, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 19, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -61%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 23, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 19, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 19, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 20, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 20, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 19, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 21, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 20, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$71
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $5 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET SELL Up 10¢ $0 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $2 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET SELL Down 27¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET SELL Up 12¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET SELL Up 19¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET SELL Up 19¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET SELL Up 21¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET SELL Up 29¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-15.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 309 -30.8% -37.4% 37% 37% -26.1%
≤30d 779 -10.9% -19.4% 53% 45% -14.2%
≤90d 1728 -6.7% -15.6% 53% 46% -13.0%
all 1728 -6.7% -15.6% 53% 46% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover52.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.6% 46% -13.0%
10% ← realistic here -23.7% 30% -21.3%
15% -31.0% 19% -28.9%
20% -37.8% 8% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records