Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:21:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A4 0xa4cd…e2ab sports 405 markets active 1h ago coverage 256d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$3,315 (-1%) realized −$3,268 · open −$47
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate69%277W / 127L
Whale WR92%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$751per market
Trades / day5.4pace
Fees−$272est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$8,633now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$760
7 days+$4,377
14 days−$1,127
30 days−$985
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 39% +$833
other 28% −$5,709
sports 25% +$1,213
crypto 7% +$118
economics 1% −$9
world 0% −$249
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-18.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +3.3% -6.5% 83% 30% -3.5%
≤30d 182 -3.8% -13.0% 91% 6% -9.9%
≤90d 212 -5.4% -14.4% 86% 9% -10.1%
all 404 -10.3% -18.8% 69% 21% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.8% 21% -10.7%
10% -26.6% 16% -19.2%
15% -33.7% 12% -27.0%
20% -40.2% 10% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
69% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 92% (≥$775) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -17% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$80 vs −$206 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

256d coverage
Net worth$8,633
Realized−$3,268
Unrealized−$47
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses277 / 127
Whale WR (big bets)92%
Est. fees paid−$272
Open positions1
Markets (closed)404 / 405
History coverage256d
Avg bet$751
Trades / day5.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 404 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? No 93¢ 92¢ $8,680 $8,633 −$47 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $8,192 +$507 +6%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $7,240 +$949 +13%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $3,882 +$3,354 +86%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $7,938 −$4,050 -51%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $7,505 +$424 +6%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,749 +$92 +5%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $6,006 +$1,409 +24%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $3,003 +$121 +4%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $2,601 +$280 +11%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $3,633 −$52 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 13? Jun 13 $568 +$15 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $357 +$7 +2%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $3,744 +$966 +26%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $617 +$72 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $351 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2,685 +$64 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $21 −$20 -96%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $509 +$55 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $800 +$43 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1,715 +$43 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1,303 +$18 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 10? Jun 10 $883 +$78 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 27°C on June 9? Jun 09 $110 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 9? Jun 09 $2,459 +$14 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on June 9? Jun 09 $2,048 +$14 +1%
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher world Jun 09 $1,334 −$1,334 -100%
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Jun 09 $340 +$1 +0%
Valorant: NRG vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Sta Jun 08 $3,283 −$2,866 -87%
Will there be exactly 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi Jun 08 $723 +$6 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 8? Jun 08 $166 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 8? Jun 08 $1,670 +$37 +2%
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Jun 08 $1,620 −$1,610 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 7? Jun 07 $3,366 +$36 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 7? Jun 07 $576 +$33 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C or higher on June 7? Jun 07 $481 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 38°C or higher on June 6? Jun 06 $1,665 +$3 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 6? Jun 06 $1,990 +$12 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 6? Jun 06 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 36°C on June 6? Jun 06 $35 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 37°C on June 6? Jun 06 $3,901 +$7 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C on June 6? Jun 06 $1,040 +$6 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 36°C or higher on June 5? Jun 05 $3,556 +$13 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 5? Jun 05 $287 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 5? Jun 05 $1,036 +$3 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C on June 5? Jun 05 $3,070 +$26 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 36°C or higher on June 4? Jun 04 $643 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 4? Jun 04 $1,407 +$6 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C on June 4? Jun 04 $2,796 +$18 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on June 3? Jun 03 $342 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 93¢ $8,698 1h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 94¢ $8,192 10h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 100¢ $8,189 10h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 88¢ $7,240 29h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 53¢ $3,882 37h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 46¢ $3,888 37h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $7,938 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $7,505 2d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 95¢ $564 3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 95¢ $129 3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 95¢ $8 3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 95¢ $27 3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 95¢ $22 3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 95¢ $184 3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 95¢ $19 3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 95¢ $19 3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 95¢ $37 3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 95¢ $741 3d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 81¢ $8 3d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 81¢ $33 3d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 81¢ $48 3d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 81¢ $85 3d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 81¢ $8 3d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 81¢ $19 3d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 81¢ $9 3d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 81¢ $83 3d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 81¢ $34 3d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 81¢ $4 3d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 81¢ $21 3d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 81¢ $21 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8,633.34 · official $8,633.34 (match) · 1717 history records