Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:41:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
A4 0xa4cc…e5d1 sports 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$620 (-22%) realized −$619 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -71% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -75% what you keep after slip
Net edge-75%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate17%1W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$406per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$1,999now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 71% −$1
sports 29% −$626
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-73.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -71.1% -73.9% 17% 17% -80.2%
≤30d 6 -71.1% -73.9% 17% 17% -80.2%
≤90d 6 -71.1% -73.9% 17% 17% -80.2%
all 6 -71.1% -73.9% 17% 17% -80.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -73.9% 17% -80.2%
10% -76.4% 17% -82.1%
15% -78.7% 17% -83.8%
20% -80.8% 17% -85.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -78% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -71% · $-wt -78% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$74 vs −$140 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$1,999
Realized−$619
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses1 / 5
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions1
Markets (closed)6 / 7
History coverage4d
Avg bet$406
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $2,000 $1,999 −$1 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $101 +$74 +73%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $308 −$300 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $202 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $101 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $101 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $303 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $101 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $303 3h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $809 25h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $101 25h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Team Vitality 36¢ $102 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 56¢ $101 2d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY EDward Gaming 57¢ $101 2d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 62¢ $101 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY TheMongolz 30¢ $102 3d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY KT Rolster 11¢ $308 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,998.51 · official $1,998.51 (match) · 15 history records