Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:06:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score

A4 0xa4ca…739a weather 26 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$180 (-9%) realized −$214 · open +$34

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip

Net edge-20%after slip

Net WR45%break-even

Win rate68%15W / 7L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$78per market

Trades / day24.3pace

Kalshi-fit88%portable

Net worth$309now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +45%

net ROI/market (all)-5.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	22	+4.3%	-5.6%	68%	45%	-21.4%
≤30d	22	+4.3%	-5.6%	68%	45%	-21.4%
≤90d	22	+4.3%	-5.6%	68%	45%	-21.4%
all	22	+4.3%	-5.6%	68%	45%	-21.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover24.3 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-5.6%	45%	-21.4%
10% ← realistic here	-14.7%	27%	-28.9%
15%	-22.9%	18%	-35.8%
20%	-30.5%	5%	-42.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 16% · top 2 29% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

33% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +4% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -10% → late +18% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$13 vs −$60 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.45 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$309

Realized−$214

Unrealized+$34

Win rate (resolved)68%

Wins / losses15 / 7

Open positions4

Markets (closed)22 / 26

History coverage2d

Avg bet$78

Trades / day24.3

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 4 History 22 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 16?	No	79¢	91¢	$125	$145	+$20 (+16%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June 16?	No	69¢	88¢	$50	$63	+$13 (+27%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 16?	No	85¢	94¢	$50	$55	+$5 (+11%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 16?	No	75¢	67¢	$50	$45	−$5 (-10%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 16?	Jun 16	$52	+$3	+5%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 16?	Jun 16	$30	+$13	+42%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 16?	Jun 16	$50	+$9	+18%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 16?	Jun 16	$67	−$17	-25%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 16?	Jun 16	$40	+$3	+6%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 16?	Jun 16	$51	+$19	+37%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 16?	Jun 16	$51	+$16	+32%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June	Jun 16	$113	+$17	+15%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 16	$103	+$14	+13%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$51	+$24	+48%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 15?	Jun 15	$70	+$7	+10%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 15?	Jun 15	$30	+$7	+23%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 15?	Jun 15	$36	+$30	+84%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16?	Jun 15	$38	−$1	-3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15?	Jun 15	$71	−$2	-3%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 15?	Jun 15	$135	+$5	+4%
Spain leading at halftime?	Jun 15	$62	−$62	-99%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 15?	Jun 15	$40	−$11	-28%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June	Jun 15	$116	+$22	+19%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June	Jun 14	$115	$0	+0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 14?	Jun 14	$104	−$3	-3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 14?	Jun 14	$328	−$321	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 16?	BUY No	85¢	$25	43m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 16?	BUY No	75¢	$51	1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 16?	SELL No	100¢	$55	1h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 16?	SELL No	100¢	$43	1h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 16?	SELL No	100¢	$60	1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 16?	BUY No	88¢	$50	1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 16?	SELL No	65¢	$50	1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 16?	BUY No	91¢	$52	3h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 16?	BUY No	69¢	$30	7h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 16?	SELL No	94¢	$43	8h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 16?	BUY No	68¢	$51	8h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 16?	SELL No	99¢	$69	8h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 16?	SELL No	99¢	$67	8h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 16?	BUY No	85¢	$50	8h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June	BUY No	69¢	$51	8h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June	SELL No	100¢	$130	8h
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 16?	BUY No	85¢	$67	8h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 16?	BUY No	84¢	$50	8h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15?	BUY No	87¢	$53	16h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15?	BUY No	89¢	$50	17h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	SELL No	90¢	$75	18h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 16?	BUY No	74¢	$51	19h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 16?	BUY No	71¢	$51	19h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	BUY No	60¢	$51	19h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 15?	SELL No	100¢	$77	20h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 15?	SELL No	100¢	$37	20h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 15?	SELL No	100¢	$66	20h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 15?	BUY No	53¢	$36	23h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16?	SELL No	83¢	$37	23h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16?	BUY No	84¢	$38	23h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $308.58 · official $309.76 (match) · 53 history records