Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:15:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0

score

A4 0xa4c4…8217 other 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d

TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample

✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$236 (+6%) realized +$219 · open +$17

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +21% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +5% what you keep after slip

Net edge+5%after slip

Net WR73%break-even

Win rate73%11W / 4L

Drawdown79%max

Avg bet$185per market

Trades / day8.0pace

Fees−$7est.

Kalshi-fit10%portable

Net worth$767now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +73%

net ROI/market (all)+9.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	15	+20.9%	+9.4%	73%	73%	-3.6%
≤30d	15	+20.9%	+9.4%	73%	73%	-3.6%
≤90d	15	+20.9%	+9.4%	73%	73%	-3.6%
all	15	+20.9%	+9.4%	73%	73%	-3.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover8.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+9.4%	73%	-3.6%
10%	-1.1%	60%	-12.9%
15%	-10.7%	53%	-21.3%
20%	-19.4%	47%	-29.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 21% · top 2 32% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +21% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +56% → late -10% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$89 vs −$197 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.24 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage

Net worth$767

Realized+$219

Unrealized+$17

Win rate (resolved)73%

Wins / losses11 / 4

Est. fees paid−$7

Open positions5

Markets (closed)15 / 21

History coverage3d

Avg bet$185

Trades / day8.0

Drawdown79%

Kalshi-fit10%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 5 History 15 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	64¢	69¢	$150	$163	+$13 (+9%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	62¢	64¢	$150	$154	+$4 (+2%)
Will France win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	89¢	90¢	$150	$153	+$3 (+2%)
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	Yes	81¢	80¢	$150	$149	−$1 (-1%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	Yes	64¢	64¢	$150	$149	−$1 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	Jun 21	$744	+$95	+13%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 21	$151	−$134	-89%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 21	$152	+$79	+52%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 20	$151	−$151	-100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$152	−$152	-100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$150	+$18	+12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$152	+$111	+73%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$152	+$94	+62%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$152	+$86	+57%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$151	+$49	+32%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$151	+$57	+38%
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$152	+$107	+70%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$153	+$205	+134%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$352	−$352	-100%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	Jun 17	$51	+$81	+158%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	BUY Yes	93¢	$200	1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?	SELL Yes	10¢	$17	1h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	BUY Yes	83¢	$302	1h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	SELL Yes	75¢	$263	1h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	BUY Yes	73¢	$141	1h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	BUY Yes	62¢	$101	1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	64¢	$152	25h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	88¢	$151	25h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	65¢	$152	25h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	47¢	$152	42h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	89¢	$150	42h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	57¢	$152	42h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	61¢	$152	42h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	64¢	$152	2d
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	81¢	$151	2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	62¢	$152	2d
Will France win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	89¢	$150	2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	75¢	$151	2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	63¢	$152	2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	74¢	$151	2d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	BUY Yes	38¢	$51	3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	91¢	$201	3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	72¢	$151	3d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	42¢	$153	3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	58¢	$152	3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	77¢	$151	3d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND	BUY	16¢	$154	3d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $766.93 · official $766.95 (match) · 45 history records