Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T17:14:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A4 0xa4c3…8bb2 other 36 markets active 1h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$287 (-18%) realized −$290 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -62% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -65% what you keep after slip
Net edge-65%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate6%2W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit8%portable
Net worth$75now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$28
7 days−$294
14 days−$294
30 days−$294
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% −$196
other 44% −$94
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-65.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 34 -61.6% -65.3% 6% 6% -27.7%
≤90d 34 -61.6% -65.3% 6% 6% -27.7%
all 34 -61.6% -65.3% 6% 6% -27.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -65.3% 6% -27.7%
10% -68.6% 6% -34.6%
15% -71.6% 6% -40.9%
20% -74.4% 6% -46.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -62% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late -100% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$410 vs −$35 · ×11.78 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$75
Realized−$290
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses2 / 32
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions2
Markets (closed)34 / 36
History coverage14d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit8%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 2 Japan? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $35 $41 +$6 (+17%)
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 2 Japan? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $36 $34 −$3 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 32 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 0 Canada? Jun 28 $29 −$28 -97%
Exact Score: Jordan 2 - 1 Argentina? Jun 27 $13 −$13 -97%
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 3 Portugal? Jun 27 $43 −$42 -97%
Exact Score: Croatia 0 - 3 Ghana? Jun 27 $14 −$14 -97%
Exact Score: Croatia 1 - 3 Ghana? Jun 27 $12 −$11 -97%
Exact Score: Colombia 3 - 1 Portugal? Jun 27 $13 −$13 -97%
Exact Score: New Zealand 3 - 3 Belgium? Jun 27 $9 −$9 -97%
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 3 Belgium? Jun 27 $11 −$11 -97%
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 3 Spain? Jun 26 $13 −$12 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 France? Jun 26 $13 −$12 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 2 France? Jun 26 $43 −$41 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 2 France? Jun 26 $23 −$22 -97%
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 3 United States? Jun 25 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: Paraguay 3 - 3 Australia? Jun 25 $13 −$13 -97%
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 3 - 3 Qatar? Jun 24 $13 −$12 -97%
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 2 - 2 Qatar? Jun 24 $14 −$14 -97%
Exact Score: Scotland 2 - 2 Brazil? Jun 24 $14 −$13 -97%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $272 −$268 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $6 −$6 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 3 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $27 −$26 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Haiti? Jun 19 $13 −$13 -98%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $42 −$41 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $36 −$35 -97%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 18 $305 −$300 -98%
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 2 South Africa? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 3 Colombia? Jun 18 $13 −$13 -97%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $13 −$12 -97%
DR Congo leading at halftime? Jun 17 $38 −$37 -97%
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $13 −$13 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $14 −$14 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $12 −$12 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $46 +$449 +982%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 2 Jordan? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -97%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $301 +$372 +124%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 5¢ $37 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 3¢ $36 1h
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 0 Canada? BUY Yes 7¢ $29 24h
Exact Score: Jordan 2 - 1 Argentina? BUY Yes 2¢ $13 2d
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 3 Portugal? BUY Yes 6¢ $43 2d
Exact Score: Croatia 0 - 3 Ghana? BUY Yes 1¢ $14 2d
Exact Score: Croatia 1 - 3 Ghana? BUY Yes 1¢ $12 2d
Exact Score: Colombia 3 - 1 Portugal? BUY Yes 3¢ $13 2d
Exact Score: New Zealand 3 - 3 Belgium? BUY Yes 1¢ $9 2d
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 3 Belgium? BUY Yes 3¢ $11 2d
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 3 Spain? BUY Yes 1¢ $13 3d
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 France? BUY Yes 2¢ $13 3d
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 2 France? BUY Yes 9¢ $43 3d
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 2 France? BUY Yes 6¢ $23 3d
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 3 United States? BUY Yes 2¢ $15 4d
Exact Score: Paraguay 3 - 3 Australia? BUY Yes 1¢ $13 4d
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 3 - 3 Qatar? BUY Yes 1¢ $13 5d
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 2 - 2 Qatar? BUY Yes 4¢ $14 5d
Exact Score: Scotland 2 - 2 Brazil? BUY Yes 3¢ $14 5d
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $272 7d
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 8d
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 3 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 1¢ $27 9d
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 13¢ $13 9d
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 9¢ $42 10d
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 7¢ $36 10d
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Qatar 49¢ $305 11d
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 2 South Africa? BUY Yes 3¢ $15 11d
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 3 Colombia? BUY Yes 3¢ $13 11d
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 10¢ $13 11d
DR Congo leading at halftime? BUY Yes 10¢ $38 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $74.87 · official $74.94 (match) · 38 history records