Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T20:10:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

A4 0xa4c1…54f6 sports 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$410 (-15%) realized −$428 · open +$18

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -66% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -69% what you keep after slip

Net edge-69%after slip

Net WR17%break-even

Win rate17%1W / 5L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$389per market

Trades / day2.4pace

Fees−$22est.

Kalshi-fit71%portable

Net worth$255now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +17%

net ROI/market (all)-68.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	6	-65.6%	-68.8%	17%	17%	-19.6%
≤30d	6	-65.6%	-68.8%	17%	17%	-19.6%
≤90d	6	-65.6%	-68.8%	17%	17%	-19.6%
all	6	-65.6%	-68.8%	17%	17%	-19.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover2.4 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-68.8%	17%	-19.6%
10%	-71.8%	17%	-27.3%
15%	-74.5%	17%	-34.4%
20%	-77.0%	17%	-40.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -19% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -66% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$925 vs −$271 · ×3.41 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×0.68 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage

Net worth$255

Realized−$428

Unrealized+$18

Win rate (resolved)17%

Wins / losses1 / 5

Est. fees paid−$22

Open positions1

Markets (closed)6 / 7

History coverage6d

Avg bet$389

Trades / day2.4

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 6 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw?	Yes	20¢	22¢	$237	$255	+$18 (+7%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw?	Jun 20	$184	−$152	-83%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 2 Sweden?	Jun 20	$10	−$10	-97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Sweden?	Jun 20	$51	−$29	-56%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$797	−$784	-98%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw?	Jun 19	$440	−$380	-86%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$995	+$925	+93%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw?	BUY Yes	20¢	$243	1h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw?	SELL Yes	1¢	$2	1h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw?	BUY Yes	7¢	$31	2h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 2 Sweden?	BUY Yes	6¢	$10	2h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Sweden?	SELL Yes	3¢	$21	2h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw?	SELL Yes	4¢	$24	2h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw?	BUY Yes	24¢	$153	5h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Sweden?	BUY Yes	7¢	$51	5h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	47¢	$62	24h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw?	SELL Yes	3¢	$60	24h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	47¢	$735	29h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	23¢	$214	35h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	23¢	$226	35h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	100¢	$1,920	5d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	51¢	$995	6d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $254.73 · official $254.73 (match) · 15 history records