Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T13:11:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A4 0xa4ba…c5d8 weather 1434 markets active 1h ago coverage 56d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 56d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$8,027 (-40%) realized −$8,025 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate31%584W / 1280L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day49.4pace
Fees−$35est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$293now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 56d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 31% −$1,122
other 28% +$25
crypto 22% −$230
sports 16% −$137
world 2% −$38
politics 1% −$8
finance 0% −$34
tech 0% −$6
culture 0% −$20
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-36.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 455 -89.8% -90.8% 2% 1% -98.0%
≤30d 527 -78.9% -80.9% 6% 3% -91.6%
≤90d 1864 -29.5% -36.2% 31% 27% -38.1%
all 1864 -29.5% -36.2% 31% 27% -38.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover49.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -36.2% 27% -38.1%
10% ← realistic here -42.3% 24% -44.0%
15% -47.9% 19% -49.4%
20% -53.0% 15% -54.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -48% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt -48% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -45% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$14 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.32 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$293
Realized−$8,025
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses584 / 1280
Est. fees paid−$35
Open positions23
Markets (closed)1864 / 1434
History coverage56d ⚠
Avg bet$14
Trades / day49.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 23 History 1864 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 22 - 28? No 88¢ 95¢ $99 $108 +$8 (+8%)
Will there be exactly 9 earthquake of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Trump’s approval rating be less than 38.0 on June 26, 2026? No 91¢ 99¢ $24 $26 +$2 (+10%)
Will Trump's approval rating hit 47% in 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $19 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 48¢ 58¢ $12 $15 +$3 (+22%)
Will GameStop acquire eBay? No 86¢ 86¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+1%)
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.5 and 39.9 on June 26, 2026? No 92¢ 27¢ $24 $7 −$17 (-70%)
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? No 40¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+150%)
New Playboi Carti Album before GTA VI? No 55¢ 48¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-13%)
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? No 35¢ 96¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+173%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No 93¢ 96¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will Trump and Putin not meet? Yes 17¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+475%)
Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027? No 77¢ 94¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+23%)
Trump out as President before GTA VI? No 72¢ 50¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-30%)
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? No 83¢ 50¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-39%)
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? No 82¢ 50¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-38%)
Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI? No 83¢ 50¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-40%)
Will GPT-6 be released before GTA VI? No 58¢ 48¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-16%)
New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? No 59¢ 48¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-19%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Yes 55¢ 26¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-52%)
Will Masoud Pezeshkian attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Yes 8¢ 3¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-60%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 35¢ 21¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-41%)
Will Jay Collins be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? Yes 7¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-90%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 477 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 23, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 26 $4 −$7 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 26 $4 −$8 -202%
Will Elche CF vs. Sevilla FC end in a draw? Jun 26 $25 −$25 -100%
Kings vs. Celtics Jun 26 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 26 $2 −$4 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 24, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$11 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$10 -201%
Red Wings vs. Senators Jun 26 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 26 $7 −$15 -202%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C or higher on April 29? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-03-22? Jun 26 $26 −$26 -100%
Celtics vs. Heat Jun 26 $50 −$100 -200%
Timberwolves vs. Bucks Jun 26 $52 −$104 -200%
Will Rams Başakşehir FK win on 2026-03-14? Jun 26 $8 −$17 -200%
Will the price of XRP be above $2.80 on October 8? Jun 26 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 30, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 26 $8 −$15 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 31, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 26 $12 −$24 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 29, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 26 $15 −$30 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 25, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 26 $23 −$46 -200%
Eagles vs. Giants: O/U 40.5 Jun 26 $0 $0 -181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 14, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$9 -202%
New York Yankees vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 26 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$10 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 17, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 26 $3 −$6 -210%
Stars vs. Ducks Jun 26 $30 −$60 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 26 $3 −$6 -201%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 20 Jun 26 $0 +$4 +2015%
Will Como 1907 win on 2026-01-24? Jun 26 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2025-12-21? Jun 26 $16 −$32 -200%
UFC 323: Vettori vs. Ferreira (Middleweight, Early Prelims) Jun 26 $10 −$20 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 24, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 26 $30 −$60 -201%
Transylvania Open: Mayar Sherif vs Oleksandra Oliynykova Jun 26 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 26 $14 −$28 -202%
Australian Open Men's: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Sebastian Baez Jun 26 $25 −$51 -200%
Capitals vs. Flames Jun 26 $20 −$40 -200%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jun 26 $24 −$48 -200%
Oakland Golden Grizzlies vs. Milwaukee Panthers Jun 26 $25 −$50 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 26 $10 −$19 -200%
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-02-07? Jun 26 $20 −$40 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 26 $19 −$39 -201%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on April 14? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Al Fateh Saudi Club win on 2025-12-26? Jun 26 $4 −$8 -200%
Valencia vs. Saski Baskonia Jun 26 $20 −$20 -100%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-04-17? Jun 26 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Dundee United FC win on 2025-12-03? Jun 26 $1 −$3 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 26 $10 −$20 -200%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 61-62°F on October 8 Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Hertha BSC win on 2026-03-08? Jun 26 $18 −$18 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY No 90¢ $62 1h
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY No 85¢ $38 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 35¢ $3 21h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 53¢ $5 22h
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.5 and 39.9 on June 26, 2026 BUY No 92¢ $24 26h
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo? SELL Yes 58¢ $3 26h
Will Trump attend 1 World Cup match? SELL Yes 55¢ $4 26h
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo? BUY Yes 60¢ $3 30h
Will Trump attend 1 World Cup match? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 30h
Will there be exactly 9 earthquake of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwid BUY No 98¢ $100 36h
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals SELL No 59¢ $23 39h
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals BUY No 59¢ $23 40h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 82¢ $5 2d
Will Trump’s approval rating be less than 38.0 on June 26, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $24 3d
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 78¢ $5 3d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Keir Starmer by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $4 3d
Burnham unopposed in 2026 Labour leadership contest? SELL No 23¢ $4 3d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Keir Starmer by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 3d
Burnham unopposed in 2026 Labour leadership contest? BUY No 12¢ $2 3d
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 37¢ $4 4d
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 37¢ $4 4d
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? SELL Yes 21¢ $5 5d
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 5d
Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? SELL Yes 70¢ $4 6d
Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? SELL Yes 70¢ $5 6d
Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? BUY Yes 71¢ $5 6d
Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY Yes 72¢ $4 6d
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 29¢ $4 6d
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? SELL Yes 22¢ $3 6d
Will Steve Witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? SELL Yes 71¢ $4 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $292.80 · official $286.65 · 3500 history records