trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | +0.1% | -9.4% | 100% | 0% | -9.4% |
| ≤30d | 9 | +4.3% | -5.6% | 78% | 11% | -6.1% |
| ≤90d | 9 | +4.3% | -5.6% | 78% | 11% | -6.1% |
| all | 24 | +2.0% | -7.8% | 62% | 4% | -7.3% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -7.8% | 4% | -7.3% |
| 10% | -16.6% | 0% | -16.2% |
| 15% | -24.6% | 0% | -24.3% |
| 20% | -32.0% | 0% | -31.7% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | No | 96¢ | 96¢ | $34 | $35 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? | Jun 18 | $26 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran closes its airspace by May 31? | May 26 | $43 | +$3 | +8% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? | May 25 | $6 | $0 | +6% |
| Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | May 25 | $42 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma | May 25 | $24 | +$5 | +21% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | May 24 | $37 | +$1 | +2% |
| Iran leadership change by June 30? | May 21 | $33 | $0 | +1% |
| Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? | May 20 | $32 | $0 | -0% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | May 19 | $9 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? | Dec 14 | $1 | $0 | +3% |
| Will the candidate from the New Reform Party win the South Korean Pres | Jun 05 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the next Pope be from Oceania? | May 10 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem | Apr 16 | $12 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Susan Crawford win by 10% or more? | Apr 15 | $23 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $76000 on Apr 18? | Apr 15 | $12 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Trump pardon Roger Ver in his first 100 days? | Apr 14 | $12 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Eric Adams win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City? | Apr 13 | $12 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $40k in April? | Apr 12 | $12 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Charles Leclerc be the 2025 Drivers Champion? | Apr 11 | $12 | $0 | +0% |
| Will CDU/CSU and AfD form the next German Government? | Apr 09 | $12 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Solana dip to $100 by March? | Mar 30 | $12 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Finland win Eurovision 2025? | Mar 25 | $12 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Atletico Madrid win La Liga? | Mar 21 | $2 | $0 | +2% |
| Will 'Novocaine' gross more than 11m on opening weekend? | Mar 15 | $11 | $0 | -0% |