Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T20:33:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A4 0xa4b8…8b22 other 52 markets active 1h ago coverage 86d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$70 (-4%) realized −$70 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate6%3W / 48L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit46%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 73% −$2
politics 12% $0
economics 5% $0
sports 4% −$69
world 2% $0
tech 2% $0
crypto 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-21.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 12 -8.4% -17.1% 17% 0% -12.8%
≤90d 51 -12.9% -21.2% 6% 2% -12.9%
all 51 -12.9% -21.2% 6% 2% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.2% 2% -12.9%
10% -28.7% 2% -21.2%
15% -35.6% 2% -28.9%
20% -41.9% 0% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 97% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized−$70
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses3 / 48
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)51 / 52
History coverage86d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit46%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 14 $6 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $15 $0 -0%
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 07 $8 $0 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $10 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $60 in May? Jun 05 $8 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? Jun 05 $17 $0 +1%
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 28 $10 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $54 $0 -0%
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 26 $10 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $20 $0 -0%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers May 22 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 21 $10 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 16 $39 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 16 $86 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 14 $83 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 14 $43 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $42 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $40 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $39 $0 -0%
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 05 $40 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $40 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 03 $44 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 02 $82 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $43 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $130 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 20 $41 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 19 $41 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $83 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $84 $0 -0%
Will Christopher Waller be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 18 $41 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $40 $0 +0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $43 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $44 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $45 $0 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 15 $41 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $44 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 14 $42 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $43 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $41 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 12 $41 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Apr 12 $42 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 12 $44 $0 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec Apr 11 $44 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 10 $41 $0 -0%
Flames vs. Avalanche Mar 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Heat vs. Cavaliers Mar 26 $12 −$12 -100%
Rockets vs. Timberwolves Mar 26 $12 −$12 -100%
Wizards vs. Jazz Mar 26 $20 −$20 -100%
Maple Leafs vs. Bruins Mar 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens Mar 25 $11 −$11 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $25 1h
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $6 2d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $6 2d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $5 4d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $5 4d
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $8 9d
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $8 9d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $10 11d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $10 11d
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 19d
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 19d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 20d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 20d
Will Solana dip to $60 in May? BUY No 100¢ $8 20d
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $10 21d
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $10 21d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 25d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 25d
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? BUY No 99¢ $17 25d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 SELL No 100¢ $10 26d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY No 100¢ $10 26d
Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 52¢ $6 26d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 27d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 27d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 28d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 28d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $39 31d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $39 31d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $41 31d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $41 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.20 · official $25.20 (match) · 123 history records