Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T08:39:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
A4 0xa4b6…6717 other 87 markets active 1h ago coverage 374d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,149 (-10%) realized −$1,126 · open −$23
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate42%34W / 46L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$128per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$1,092now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$16
7 days+$126
14 days−$252
30 days−$174
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 68% −$713
world 18% −$60
sports 10% −$287
crypto 4% −$128
culture 0% −$3
politics 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-25.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -22.3% -29.7% 25% 25% +5.6%
≤30d 19 -30.7% -37.3% 32% 26% -19.0%
≤90d 19 -30.7% -37.3% 32% 26% -19.0%
all 80 -17.7% -25.5% 42% 38% -20.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.5% 38% -20.0%
10% -32.6% 35% -27.7%
15% -39.1% 30% -34.7%
20% -45.1% 20% -41.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -30% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$70 vs −$77 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

374d coverage
Net worth$1,092
Realized−$1,126
Unrealized−$23
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses34 / 46
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions7
Markets (closed)80 / 87
History coverage374d
Avg bet$128
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 80 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 78¢ 80¢ $500 $516 +$16 (+3%)
Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $200 $201 +$1 (+0%)
Will Morocco be the furthest advancing CAF nation at the World Cup? Yes 41¢ 32¢ $200 $154 −$46 (-23%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 19¢ $100 $114 +$14 (+14%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 15¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
UFC: Will Conor McGregor Fight in 2026? No 10¢ 5¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-51%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-34%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $123 −$16 -13%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Germany reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $102 −$12 -11%
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $504 +$180 +36%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $49 −$49 -100%
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? Jun 18 $101 −$101 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 18 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 18 $109 −$109 -100%
Spread: Canada (-5.5) Jun 18 $102 −$31 -30%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $24 −$13 -56%
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $26 −$2 -6%
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $96 +$5 +5%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $61 +$11 +18%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $76 −$34 -44%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $25 +$27 +105%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $97 +$42 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 08 $52 +$36 +70%
Will Trabzonspor win on 2025-12-22? Dec 23 $94 −$94 -100%
Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2025-12-20? Dec 21 $229 +$94 +41%
Will KRC Genk win on 2025-10-23? Oct 24 $7 −$7 -100%
Will GNK Dinamo Zagreb win on 2025-10-23? Oct 24 $76 −$76 -100%
Will Galatasaray SK vs. FK Bodø/Glimt end in a draw? Oct 24 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Go Ahead Eagles win on 2025-10-23? Oct 23 $66 +$10 +15%
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2025-10-23? Oct 23 $20 −$13 -64%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2025-10-23? Oct 23 $311 −$226 -72%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2025-10-21? Oct 23 $1 $0 +35%
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2025-10-22? Oct 23 $196 +$115 +59%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2025-10-21? Oct 21 $154 +$93 +60%
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2025-10-18? Oct 18 $169 +$85 +50%
Will Türkiye win on 2025-10-14? Oct 14 $164 +$105 +64%
Will Germany win on 2025-10-13? Oct 14 $120 +$44 +37%
Will Hamas release any more hostages by October 12? Oct 13 $100 −$100 -100%
Magomedov vs. Pyfer Oct 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Ankalaev vs. Pereira Oct 11 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2025-10-05? Oct 11 $94 −$94 -100%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 05 $10 −$3 -34%
Will Trump sell 1-100 Gold Cards in 2025? Oct 05 $10 +$3 +30%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 05 $20 −$4 -20%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 05 $40 −$4 -9%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 05 $20 +$2 +8%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Oct 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum outperforms Bitcoin on August 3? Oct 04 $156 −$81 -52%
Will Vitinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Oct 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Spain win the UEFA Women's Euro? Oct 04 $161 −$161 -100%
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Oct 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2025 US Open? Oct 04 $200 −$200 -100%
UFC 319: Will Chimaev win by submission? Oct 04 $159 −$159 -100%
Will Cole Palmer win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Oct 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 48¢ $203 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $103 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $87 1h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 21¢ $26 2d
Will Germany reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 25¢ $91 2d
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 78¢ $503 4d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 5d
UFC: Will Conor McGregor Fight in 2026? BUY No 10¢ $10 5d
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 100¢ $684 5d
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 73¢ $504 7d
Spread: Canada (-5.5) SELL Canada 36¢ $71 7d
Spread: Canada (-5.5) BUY Canada 50¢ $102 7d
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 46¢ $10 9d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 24¢ $11 9d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $24 9d
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 29¢ $24 9d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 59¢ $49 10d
Will Germany reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 27¢ $102 10d
Will Morocco be the furthest advancing CAF nation at the World Cup? BUY Yes 41¢ $204 10d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $103 10d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $103 10d
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 72¢ $101 11d
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? SELL Yes 80¢ $101 11d
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 75¢ $96 11d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) SELL Ciryl Gane 99¢ $22 11d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 44¢ $10 11d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $20 12d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 21¢ $18 12d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $51 12d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 56¢ $24 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,092.21 · official $1,092.21 (match) · 208 history records