Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:33:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A4 0xa4b5…ecff sports 127 markets active 0h ago coverage 28d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$416 (+4%) realized +$418 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate59%70W / 49L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$88per market
Trades / day9.3pace
Fees−$141est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$133now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$153
7 days+$232
14 days+$720
30 days+$352
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% +$348
other 3% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 +2.7% -7.1% 61% 59% -5.1%
≤30d 119 -0.2% -9.7% 59% 57% -6.6%
≤90d 119 -0.2% -9.7% 59% 57% -6.6%
all 119 -0.2% -9.7% 59% 57% -6.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 57% -6.6%
10% -18.4% 53% -15.6%
15% -26.3% 47% -23.7%
20% -33.5% 34% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$49 vs −$62 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$133
Realized+$418
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses70 / 49
Est. fees paid−$141
Open positions5
Markets (closed)119 / 127
History coverage28d
Avg bet$88
Trades / day9.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 119 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $30 $34 +$4 (+15%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 13¢ $20 $26 +$6 (+32%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $30 $25 −$5 (-17%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $30 $22 −$8 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $51 +$44 +86%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $51 +$31 +62%
Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 18 $51 +$30 +59%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $51 +$26 +52%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $51 +$37 +73%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $51 +$36 +71%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $51 −$51 -100%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $101 +$49 +49%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 16 $202 +$88 +43%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $151 −$151 -100%
Map Handicap: PR (-1.5) vs Team Vitality (+1.5) Jun 15 $101 −$101 -100%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $271 +$170 +63%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $283 +$187 +66%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $71 −$71 -100%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff Jun 14 $101 −$101 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $265 +$29 +11%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $2 +$3 +128%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 14 $100 +$72 +72%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $14 −$12 -87%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $6 +$8 +137%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $2 +$4 +165%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $31 −$31 -100%
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs XLG Gaming (+1.5) Jun 13 $101 −$101 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $273 +$19 +7%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Jun 13 $102 +$98 +96%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $51 −$51 -100%
Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs Team WE (+2.5) Jun 13 $69 −$69 -100%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $92 +$113 +123%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $55 +$14 +24%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $101 +$35 +34%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $105 +$51 +48%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 12 $202 −$202 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $51 −$51 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $101 +$42 +42%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $51 −$41 -81%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $503 +$108 +22%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $272 −$44 -16%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $150 +$51 +34%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $101 −$101 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $213 +$98 +46%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $20 +$9 +46%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $35 +$15 +43%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $242 +$109 +45%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $152 +$84 +55%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $164 +$30 +18%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $165 +$94 +57%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 10 $102 +$152 +149%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL FURIA 100¢ $94 20m
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $82 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 53¢ $51 1h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $51 3h
Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) SELL Aurora Gaming 99¢ $81 4h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 100¢ $77 4h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Aurora Gaming 100¢ $88 4h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 65¢ $51 5h
Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) BUY Aurora Gaming 61¢ $51 6h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 57¢ $51 7h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 AND Czechia vs. South BUY 8¢ $3 10h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 AND Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 AND Eng BUY 17¢ $5 24h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY 53¢ $30 40h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL 96¢ $87 44h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY 55¢ $51 2d
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play SELL Team Vitality 100¢ $150 2d
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY Team Vitality 67¢ $101 2d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $51 2d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl SELL Leviatán Esports 100¢ $290 2d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY Leviatán Esports 69¢ $202 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 69¢ $151 3d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof SELL Paper Rex 99¢ $440 3d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 58¢ $119 3d
Map Handicap: PR (-1.5) vs Team Vitality (+1.5) BUY Paper Rex 67¢ $101 3d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 62¢ $152 3d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo SELL EDward Gaming 99¢ $470 3d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY EDward Gaming 55¢ $30 3d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY EDward Gaming 64¢ $101 3d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY EDward Gaming 57¢ $152 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Team Falcons 99¢ $234 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $133.45 · official $136.55 · 310 history records